考慮專案價值之廠商標價決策模式

Abstract

投標價評估是相當重要的，關係廠商得標與否與專案執行盈虧。投標是廠商重要的營運活動，在進行投標決策時，廠商常面臨一些問題，專案的價值為何?公司得標的機會多大?廠商該如何去決定投標價?本研究藉由瞭解廠商投標決策影響因素，並將專案價值的影響以預期偏好價值與得標機率曲線呈現，藉由折算現金流量法來評估損益兩平下的專案成本累積曲線，再整合兩曲線以訂出廠商投標參考標價。本研究將廠商類型依其風險偏好分成風險趨避、風險中立、風險偏好三類，並藉由層級分析法與模糊積分法整合運用於預期專案價值，再依其偏好價值曲線來決定預期得標機率與廠商預期投標價格。所提出之模式是以新竹某一建築工程之「機電工程施工標」為例來做說明，實證發現採用該方法所預測的建議投標價與廠商實際執行價格較為接近，也證實投標價格確實會受到經濟因素所影響。

Evaluation of bid price is important since it is related to that whether or not the company gets projects as well as benefits from them. Several issues that a company will face when making bid decisions are: (1) The value of the project, (2) The chance of getting the project, (3) How the companies deciding the bid price. This study focuses on the on the factors of bid decision of general companies and presents the Effects on Bid Value by two methods: Expecting Preference Value (EPV) and Chance of Getting Project Curve (CGPC). The Subjection Bidding Price (SBP) is calculated by the proposed method that integrates the CGPC and Cost Accumulation Curve (CAC) in balance situation. CAC is generated by Discount Cash Flow (DCF) method. In this study, companies are primarily divided into three groups depending on their risking preference: Risk Averse, Risk Neutral and Risk Loving. EPV is determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Integral Method (FIM) according to which the company being concerned belongs. The propose method was explained in detail by introduction of a mechanical and electrical construction in Hsin-Chu. The result shows that the bid price calculated by proposed method is closer to the real price adapted by the companies as well as that bid price depends on economic factors.