台灣的玫瑰與香水百合拍賣的價格下滑實證分析

Abstract

價格下滑現象常發生於順序拍賣中。1990年代起陸續出現理論模型來解釋價格下滑現象。花卉拍賣的價格下滑研究則始自2001年。目前台灣的花卉產業包含五家花卉批發市場：台北、台中、彰化、台南及高雄。過去研究利用迴歸分析方法實證台北花卉批發市場的價格下滑現象。本論文用迴歸分析方法擴充實證分析至其他花卉批發市場的價格下滑現象；但由於台中花卉批發市場缺少資料，故不在本論文討論範圍。本論文實證顯示台灣的花卉產業存在價格下滑現象，並且統計顯著。

Price declining is a common phenomenon in sequential auctions. Therefore their theoretical models for explaining this phenomenon began to emerge in 1990s. Especially a global research study started on auctioned flowers since 2001. For the floral industry in Taiwan, there exist five major flower wholesale markets: Taipei, Taichung, Changhua, Tainan, and Kaohsiung. In the previous empirical study, the regression analysis of flower declining price only limited to Taipei flower wholesale market. In this thesis, the regression analysis is extended to cover other flower wholesale markets except Taichung wholesale market which the empirical data is not available nowadays. This empirical study shows a statistics-significant result of price declining to the floral industry in Taiwan.