新產品上市對整體供應鏈之競爭效果- 以iPad2和全球平板電腦市場為例

Abstract

自iPad這個破壞性創新躍上舞台之際，迅速的顛覆了消費者體驗與現有筆記型電腦市場結構，而為了迎頭趕上蘋果的腳步，眾家消費性電子大廠之平板電腦商品自2010年末起紛踏而至，本研究以資本市場之角度出發，利用SUR方法，分析這一連串的競爭者新品發布行為，究竟有無動搖蘋果之領頭地位?未來哪個品牌可能有機會挑戰蘋果? 更甚者，不只看蘋果本身對競爭者行為之反應，而是延伸檢視iPad全球供應鏈廠商，探究其行為對上游零組件供應商、中游組裝廠競爭效果影響之顯著性。實證結果發現在股價上反應對蘋果公司本身最具威脅性的競爭者只有亞馬遜的Kindle Fire，若分析整體iPad2供應鏈，亞馬遜的競爭效果仍存在並有提前反應之現象，並於事件日後出現反向修正傾向，另外部份競爭者之新產品上市對iPad2供應鏈反而帶來正向影響，深究後發現其為供應鏈廠商重複性很高所致，反帶來正向蔓延效果。總體結論為唯有具備低價和內容提供優勢的Kindle Fire為資本市場投資者們最看好的蘋果殺手，未來平板電腦市場應會朝M型化發展。

The purpose of this paper is to access the impact on the PC ecosystem after the launch of the disruptive innovation product, the iPad2. We apply seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze if there’s any new product announcement and release from competitors that would possibly shatter iPad2’s leading position from capital market performances. In this paper, we examined competitive effects not only in terms of Apple Inc. itself, but the entire supply chain of iPad2, including 36 upstream suppliers and 1 midstream assembly. Based on our results, we conclude that Kindle Fire introduced by Amazon results in significantly negative abnormal return to both Apple and its supply chain, and the competitive effect shows earlier response to the supply chain. On the other hand, for competitors who share a high degree of similarity of the suppliers are in fact beneficial to the new product announcement, implying positive contagion effects offset the competitive effects in several events. To sum up, Kindle Fire can possibly be an iPad killer in the following future, and the entire tablet industry would likely to develop in a M-form.