CPV在太陽能產業競爭力之研究

Abstract

在最近幾年來，太陽能產業不論是在效率的提升、產能的增加、成本的降低、技術及供應鏈的成熟度，都有非常大且卓越的進步，也成為各國政府提倡和扶植的再生能源中產業重點項目之一。 目前太陽能產業技術主要包括單多晶矽、非晶矽(薄膜)及聚光型太陽能(Concentrated Photovoltaic簡稱CPV)。其中，CPV嶄露頭角並愈來愈受重視的原因在於CPV效率更高，生產製造過程更環保，成本更具優勢。而且CPV產品並不會以取代的方式而是長期與單多晶矽、薄膜技術產品共存，因此，隨著技術及成本優勢的不斷增長，CPV的市場規模將呈現爆發性的成長。 本研究係經由歷史資料蒐集，運用產業價值鏈、產業生命週期理論來了解CPV在太陽能產業的發展歷程、現況與未來發展；另透過麥可波特(Michael Porter)的產業結構五力模型結合SWOT來分析CPV在太陽能產業的競爭力。研究結果顯示近幾年太陽能產業快速擴張、產能不斷擴充，導致國際市場供過於求，加上各國政府在補助太陽能於每度電的金額呈現快速且大幅減少或刪減的現象，在產業競爭加劇、利潤迅速下滑時，CPV憑藉其技術成長的空間加大、以提昇發電效率、降低電池材料使用量、及材料高回收率，不斷且大幅降低其單位裝置成本，可突破現有的困境及僵局，持續投入研發，致力於產品差異化，極力爭取規模經濟，並考量垂直整合的可能性，將是強化產業的關鍵。

In recent years, photovoltaic industry has made dramatic advancement in technology such as conversion efficiency as well as in production capacity, cost reduction, and supply chain. Furthermore, it has become one of the most favorable choices among various reused energy technologies as evidenced by the support and subsidization of many countries in the world. In photovoltaic (PV) industry’s technology consists of single-crystal and polycrystalline silicon, thin film , and CPV. The CPV technology is getting more and more attention because of its very high efficiency, cost reduction, and environmental friendly production. Moreover, the CPV technology most likely will not replace the other PV technologies but rather coexists with them in the market for applications in different environments. Therefore, CPV is expected to explosive growth in the near future as it advances rapidly in technology and cost reduction. The purpose of this study is to understand the history and current status of the CPV industry through literature research and the utilization of industry value chain and life cycle theory. Another purpose is to analyze the competitiveness of the CPV technology in PV industry using Michael Porter’s model in combination with SWOT. This study shows that in the past few years the capacity expansion of PV industry has been too fast, resulting in over supply in the market. This is the result of an over-estimation of demand which is partly due to the recent dramatic cutback of government subsidization from most countries all over the world. As a result, the industry profit has decreased and competition has become more and more fierce. Under these circumstances, the CPV technology has a more competitive edge as compared to other PV technologies. Because CPV is a technology in its relatively early stage and therefore has more room to improve in many areas including efficiency, reduction and reuse of fabrication materials thus the reduction of cost. It is promising that CPV can overcome the above mentioned issues faced by the PV industry as long as it continues its R&D in product differentiation, pushes for economic scale, and strives for the possibility of vertical integration.