行動型電腦與桌上型電腦面板競合分析

Abstract

本研究以生物生態學Lotka-Volterra模型，針對全球面板製造產業之行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 與桌上型電腦(Desktop PC)兩種迥然不同經營策略及Mobile PC 10”與14”面板之出貨量進行適配與預測分析，探討何種經營策略能有效掌握顧客的需求與購買的決策過程。過去行銷領域中有關消費者行為的研究多以問卷為主，但是真實的消費決策有賴實際銷售量佐證，因此，本研究以銷售額作為消費者購買意願的指標，運用Lotka-Volterra模型分析行動型電腦(Mobile PC)與桌上型電腦(Desktop PC)兩生產出貨量及Mobile PC 10吋與14吋面板出貨量的關聯性。研究結果顯示行動型電腦(Mobile PC)與桌上型電腦(Desktop PC)存在片利共生的競合關係，Mobile PC 10吋與14吋面板存在片利共生的競合關係。 本研究目的是:1.根據桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 及行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 每季銷售量，並依照數據資料進行驗證性分析，了解固定市場潛量條件下的差異，桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 與行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 產品擴散現象以及兩者是屬於Lotka-Volterra 模型中哪種關係。2.已持有桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 產品及未持有桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 之產品的消費者而言，面對行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 這種行動產品技術，對消費者購買意願，也希望藉此模型獲得驗證。3.面對行動型電腦(Mobile PC)與桌上型電腦(Desktop PC)彼此之間日益增加的競爭局勢，本文採用產品擴散模型方式，探索桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 與行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 彼此之間的動態競爭關係模式，桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 是否會從市場上消失，或是在市場競爭上，彼此存在著均衡關係。4.Mobile PC 面板尺寸10吋與14吋 彼此之間的競爭關係模式;Mobile PC 10吋與14吋面板是否會互相侵蝕。 本研究所建構出來的競爭分析模型，希望未來將可以做為面板廠商生產銷售預測重要參考工具，期以提供業者針對未來快速變動的市場做出正確的判斷，並能擬定合適的生產行銷策略及保有其競爭優勢。最後在模型精確度方面，Lotka-Volterra模型與Bass模型配適度均佳，此外，均衡分析結果顯示行動型電腦(Mobile PC) 與桌上型電腦(Desktop PC) 兩者在長期競爭下會達到穩定均衡狀態。Mobile PC 面板10吋與14吋 兩組產品銷售量，儘管迥然不同卻息息相關密不可分，兩者一併考量有助於預測分析。

This investigation employs the Lotka-Volterra model to explore the market competitions between the mobile personal computer (PC) and desktops PC in global Panel manufacturing industry. The Parameters of the Lotka-Volterra mathematical model show the commensalism relationship between the mobile PC and the desktop PC. Besides, the parameters of the Lotka-Volterra mathematical model show the commensalism relationship between 10-inch and 14-inch mobile PC panels. In addition, the shipment growth from mobile PC is estimated to increase because mobile PC manufacturing capabilities can support the competitiveness of the desktop PC production vendors, but the desktop PC sale volumes do not affect on the mobile PC. Mobile PC’s 10-inch and 14-inch relationship is also commensalism. Finally, the model accuracy comparison between Lotka-Volterra and Bass models shows that both models contain good predictive ability to analyze the sales volumes of the global panel manufacturing industry. In addition , the shipment growth from Mobile PC production shipment is estimated to increase because use both excellent manufacturing capabilities to support the competitiveness of the Desktop PC production shipment vendors , but the other Desktop PC production shipment not affect on the Mobile PC production shipment . Mobile PCs 10 " and 14" competition between the relational schema ; Mobile PC 10 " and 14 " panel with each other erosion .Competitive analysis model constructed in this institute will be able to predict an important reference tool of production and sales as panel makers to provide the industry to make the right judgments for future rapid changes in market and develop the appropriate production and marketing strategy and to maintain their competitive advantage. Finally, the model accuracy, the Lotka-Volterra model and Bass model predictive ability, both are good predictive ability to analyze the action of the global panel manufacturing industry mobile personal computer (PC) and desktops PC and Mobile PC 10”vs14” seed production shipment , despite the very different but closely related to the inseparable, both considerations contribute to the prediction analysis .