標題: 價值投資法的研究與探討—以中華電信為例
Research and Discussion of the Value Investing- Evidence from Chunghwa Telecom
作者: 謝晨彥
Hsieh, Chen-Yen
鍾惠民
李漢星
Chung, Huimin
Lee, Han-Hsing
管理學院財務金融學程
關鍵字: 價值投資法;現金流量;股利成長;股價;中華電信;Value Investing;Discounted Cash Flow;Cash Dividend Growth;Stock Price;Chunghwa Telecom
公開日期: 2012
摘要: 本研究旨在利用價值投資法 (Value Investing) 中的「淨現金流量折現法」(Discounted Cash Flow, DCF) 以及「現金股利成長法」(Cash Dividend Growth, CDG),並以中華電信 (Chunghwa Telecom) 為樣本企業進行評價。透過對該個案企業進行財務報表資料的蒐集及分析,以進行中華電信整體企業之價值評估,探討中華電信是否為適合之投資標的。 本研究的主要發現有以下幾點,第一,經由淨現金流量折現法,本研究評價中華電信公司於 2012年年底的股價預測值上限為 105.6 元 (新台幣),下限則為 62.7 元。由於評價結果顯示,低估了該公司在未來的股價,表示該公司目前的股價是處於相對高的價格,投資者對其價值是屬於高估的狀態,顯示其於未來仍有相當大的回檔空間。第二,在股利成長法的評價上,若以現金股利的成長來預期投資報酬的未來趨勢,可以得到較為一致且準確的預測,顯示現金股利成長率是較現金股利,以及現金股利率更為適當的投資報酬率預測指標。第三,在投資報酬率的可能性要素分析上,現金股利成長率、本益比、現金股利發放率,以及公司市值規模等因子為影響投資報酬率較具有顯著性的變數。顯示出這些變數對於投資報酬率的高度相關性,並且較適合做為投資報酬的預測因子以及觀察指標。同時,以市值規模因子來觀察,本研究實證結果亦可與 Fama and French(1993) 所提出之以市場風險、企業規模以及淨值市價比為因子之三因子模型相互印證。
This study employed the Cash Dividend Growth (CDG) and the Cash Dividend Growth (CDG) in the Value Investing Model to estimate the enterprise value of Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. in Taiwan. The main empirical findings such as: first of all, the results demonstrated that with the application of Discounted Cash Flow, the stock price predicted values range of Chunghwa Telecom from 62.7 NT dollars to 105.6 NT.dollars in the end of 2012. This result shows that the market value of Chunghwa Telecom was overvalued in the moment. Second, by using the result of Cash Dividend Growth, it shows that if we forecast the trend of stock return of Chunghwa Telecom in the future by the cash dividend growth rate, we can get the consistent and accurate forecasts, it also shows that the cash dividend growth rate is the better forecasting indicator than the cash dividends and the cash dividend rate on the return. Third, by using the result of the factors analysis in the stock return, the cash dividend growth rate, P/E ratio, cash dividend rate and the size are the significant influence variables on the return, these variables are the better observation indicator on the return. The empirical results of this study also confirm the conclusion of Fama and French(1993).
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079972512
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/50852
Appears in Collections:Thesis