台灣花卉供應鏈之決策問題研究－以文心蘭出口為例

Abstract

我國終於在西元2002年正式成為世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization - WTO）的第144個會員，之後在WTO之規範下，將可以平等之地位有效掌握商機進行各項貿易活動。然而，另一方面我國也必須遵守WTO之相關規範及履行入會前談判之承諾，其中包括農產品關稅的調降與農業政策及市場的開放，對國內之農業發展影響甚鉅。因此，隨著政府對於國內農業政策之調整、整體發展資源之重新規劃，以及各農政單位積極地輔導農民轉作高經濟價值農作物之影響，近年來我國於各項農產品之生產趨勢與過去已有相當顯著之差異。其中以花卉為例，種植面積逐年增加，生產總值亦逐年上升（占農產品生產總值比重已達7.1％），並且逐漸開始積極拓展外銷管道。

然而當我國積極地發展花卉外銷之同時，國內花卉產業亦面臨了許多挑戰，其中在外銷品種之研發方面，國內之各研究單位已有多樣化之成果，但在外銷花卉品質改善及物流成本降低等方面，則仍有改善之空間。有鑑於此，本研究以國內文心蘭外銷供應鏈為例，從「系統化」與「數量化」之觀點，重新檢視外銷花卉供應鏈之運銷過程決策，並利用機率性動態規劃法（Probabilistic Dynamic Programming）構建外銷花卉供應鏈之運銷決策模式。數學模式的目標在將供應鏈中各階段決策對於花卉品質狀態、物流成本、以至議價之影響，系統性地加以考量，並藉以找出期望利潤極大化之最適供應鏈決策組合。

在進行模式的數值測試時，本研究蒐集了許多國內現行作業的實際資料，並且包含多項重要因素之情境與敏感度分析。分析的結果顯示，就國內文心蘭外銷供應鏈而言，面對供應鏈各階段多數的決策選項，仍應選擇對花卉品質影響最小的作業方式為宜，即使相對成本較高，但最終仍能獲得較高的利潤。

Taiwan has finally affiliated with World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002. Under the system of WTO, Taiwan has the same right with other members to grasp the oppo- rtunities to facilitate its trades. On the other hand, Taiwan also needs to meet WTO’s standard and fulfill the agreed promise during the membership negotiation, including customs duty reduction for agricultural products and linearization of agricultural pol- icy and market. There actions cast great influence on the development of local agric- ulture. Therefore, Taiwanese government has adjusted the direction and re-allocated the resources of agriculture development. Particularly, measures are taken to encoura ge raising products with higher economic values. Due to all these reasons, the mix and trend of agricultural products have been significantly changed in Taiwan. For example, the acreage and value of flora products have been increased, accounting for 7.1% of overall agricultural production. Besides, channels are set up aggressively to export Taiwanese floral products.

Many challenges are faced by the industry while exporting flora products. For new brand cultivation, local industry has some successful experiences. However, in terms of quality assurance and related costs, there is still some room for improvement. The- refore, using Oncidiums as an example, this study examines the decisions of the sup ply chain of exporting floral products from a “systematic” and “quantitative” aspect. A probabilistic dynamic programming (DP) approach is taken to model the decision process. Aiming to generate the profit maximization decision combination, this ma- thematical model is designed to incorporate the options of each stage in the supply ch- ain and their impacts on product quality, cost, and final price.When testing the model, this study collects much local operational data and performs various kinds of scenario and sensitivity analysis of several important factors. The results suggest that, in gen eral, the decisions with less quality degradation, even though with higher costs, will result in a higher supply chain profit.