產業內廠商規模分配之研究 ── 以食品製造業及電機電子業為例

Abstract

本研究以隨機漫步模型， 研究廠商規模分配（ the size distribution of firms ）是否近似對數常態 。 依其模型之結論，只要 （1）廠商合乎隨機成長（2）成長率越小 （3）存活率越大以及（4）期 數越多， 則廠商規模分配越近似對數常態。本研究發現當成長率越大時 ，即使合乎隨機成長、存活率大以及期數長，其規模分配不會趨近對數常 態。因此，成長率為影響廠商規模分配近似對數常態之重要因素。本研究 蒐集有關成長率之文獻加以整理，發現廠齡和廠商規模兩項因素影響廠商 成長率。本研究以此為基礎配合隨機漫步模型加以推演再利用迴歸模型推 論，並以食品製造業和電機電子業為研究對象，發現前者之期數比後者多 ，但其廠商規模分配，後者比前者更接近對數常態。此一現象支持了成長 率為重要因素之結論。此外本研究發現食品製造業中廠齡和成長率呈正向 變化， 而電機電子業則否。此一結論和鄭凱方（1992）之研究結果一致 。此外，在廠商規模分配近似對數常態方面本研究發現：（1）就食品製 造業而言，以實際運用資產衡量廠商規模分配其配適度最好，其次是銷售 額，最後是員工人數。（2）就電機電子業而言，以員工人數衡量廠商規 模分配其配適度最好，其次是銷售額，而實際運用資產則不確定。（3） 無論以員工人數、銷售額（以廠齡大於 10 年為基礎） 來衡量廠商規模 ， 其廠商規模分配的配適程度，電機電子業比食品製造業配商的好。 This article uses random walk model to study the size distribution of firms. According to the conclusion of this model, if 1.firm growth is independent of firm size, 2.growing rate is smaller, 3.surviving rate is larger, 4.more and more the number of periods, then the size distribution will approximate the log-normal. This article finds that even firm growth is independent of firm size, surviving rate is larger, and more and more the number of periods, the size distribution does not approxi- mate the log-normal. Therefore, the growing rate will be the important factor to affect the size distribution. This article finds that the firm's age and size af- fects the growing by making a survey of the literatures. Base on this result and using the random walk model, this article constructs a framework and regression model to test whether the growing rate is the important factor or not. This article investigates the food manufacturing industry, electrical and electronic equipment industry and finds the evidences to support the above mentions. Otherwise this article finds that the firm's age and grow- ing rate are positive relatiion in food manufacturing in- dustry, but electrical and electronic equipment industry are not. This result is consistent with Kae-Fang Jeng's result (1992). In the goodness of fit (size distribution approximate the log-normal) aspact, this study finds that: (1) In food manufacturing industry, asset fits better than sales and sales fits better than employee. (2) In electrical and electronic equipment industry, employee fits better than sales and sales fits better than asset. (3) In employee and sales, electrical and electronic equipment industry fits better than food manufacturing industry ( in the firm's age is greater than 10 years).