我國產業排序及其發展策略之研究

Abstract

面對日益嚴重的環境污染與能源枯竭問題，所以我們在追求經濟成長 的同時，宜兼顧環境與能源方面的考量．基於國家有限的資源，應當調整 產業結構：加強發展低耗能､低汙染､高附加價值的產業，同時要抑制高 耗能､高汙染､低附加價值產業的成長． 然而在眾多產業之中， 如何去判定何種產業為不良，便是一項重要的課題．本研究係以附加價值 率､能源耗損率､污染排放率作為評估指標，利用模糊積分評估法，對臺 灣地區之產業別進行績效排序．依據排序結果，以非金屬礦物製品､鋼鐵 ､化工原料等產業的綜合績效為最差．本研究提出以產業外移為策略，同 時以鋼鐵業為實施對象，藉以模擬改善日益嚴重的環境與污染問題． 本研究結合投入產出分析與數學規劃法，建立以經濟-能源-環境互動的多 目標模型，作為從事某特定政策(產業外移)所導致的能源使用､污染排放 ､產業產出變動之模擬分析基礎．本研究係以民國八十年之實證資料來模 擬民國八十九年之情況；結果發現鋼鐵業的外移政策，將可大幅改善能源 耗損與環境污染，僅需犧牲(減緩)些許的經濟成長為代價． Because the environmental and energy problems are gradually emphasized, we are thinking about how to take care both of them. Depending on the limitation resources of our country, the industry structure should be adjusted enforcing the low energy consuming, low polluted emission and high value-added industry, at the same time inhibiting the development of the high consuming, high polluted and low value-added industry. However in so many industrial types, it becomes an important course about how to judge what kinds of them are "bad". In this study, the Fuzzy Integral evaluated method was used to measure the indexes. According to this method, the industrial performance ranking was conducted in Taiwan. By the results, nonmetal mineral, steel and chemistry material have the poor performance. The strategy of industrial emigration was suggested by using the example of steel to simulate how to solve the pollution and energy problem. In this study, the Input-Output Analysis and Mathematics Programming were combined to set up an interactive multiobjective model, using economics, energy and environment to be some particular strategy (industry emigration) of basis of simulation and analysis. Using the data in 1991 to simulate the condition in 2000, then conclusions that the strategy of emigrant of steel just slow down little economic growth was obtained and the results can be greatly improving the situation caused by the energy consumption and environmental po llution.