電子零件可靠度預估方法之比較研究－以局用電子數位交換機之零組件可靠度預估為例

Abstract

可靠度預估為整個新產品設計流程中，對於產品預期達成可靠度，予以定 量評估，以驗證其設計是否符合規定需求的技術。雖然，國際通用的電子 零件可靠度預估規範美軍軍規 MIL-HDBK-217F與 Bellcore TR-NWT-00033 已發行多年；但如何運用此規範於實務上，卻甚少在文獻中提及。因此， 本研究以 217F 與 Bellcor的比較研究為出發點，進而發展出符合工業界 實務應用的經驗式可靠度預估程序，並詳述其實施步驟，以提供業界參考 ，期推廣可靠度預估技術的運用。最後，並以局用電子數位交換機的零組 件可靠度預估為例，將實際可靠度值與預估值做驗証、比較。 This study employs reliability prediction to quantitatively assess the desired reliability of a product during design procedureso as to confirm whether design requirements are satisfied. International guidelines have been promulgated for quite some time regarding the reliability prediction procedure of electronic equipment such as MIL-HDBK-217F and Bellcore TR- NWT-000332. However, such guidelines' implementation have rarely been addressed in previous literature. This study compares 217F and Bellcore in terms of their respective guidelines. In addition, an empirical reliability prediction procedure is proposed to fulfill industrial requirements. The procedure proposed herein can be easily implemented and, hopefully, extend reliability applications. Moreover, an illustrative example demonstrates the accuracy of predicting unit reliability for a digital switching system. Also, predicted values for various procedures and field data are compared in terms of reliability.