兩岸海上客運系統營運可行性之初步分析

Abstract

Since late 1987 when the ban on family visits to mainland China was released,the exchanges between two sides of Taiwan Strait has become more and more close.Taiwan Strait must be a main gateway if direct Cross-Strait transport is allowedby policy in the future. Besides by air, passenger ship is another possible alt-ernative. The subject of this research is to investigate the operational feasib-ility of such a direct Cross- Strait passenger ship system under the assumptionthat policy is allowed. Routes considered in this study includes Kellung- Fuzhou,Keelung-Xiamen and Kaohsiung-Xiamen. First, this research analyzes the characteristics of navigable passenger ship on Taiwan Strait. It is found out that the proper navigable high speed passengerships are Surface Effect Ship (SES) and Wave-Piercing Catamaran (WPC). Using a ship and airplane as competiting modes, this study then uses stated preferencemethod to design and conduct two surveys, in order to analyze the characters ofof passengers' mode choice behavior and to develop a modal choice model. Passen-gers demand and market share of ship for different routes and different kinds of ship are forecasted based on the model. Finally, the operational feasibility of passenger ship system for different routes between two sides of Taiwan Straitare evaluated. The results revealed tha no matter what kind of situations, Ships or routes, the market share of high speed passenger ship is more than that of airplane atthe early stage (the airplane is not direct transport, but high speed passenger ship