高速公路交流道設置前後人口及產業之比較分析

Abstract

摘要 本研究希望藉由中山高與北二高部份交流道實例，探討高速公路興建對交 流道附近地區人口及產業趨勢之衝擊影響。 本文首先利用選定之交流道實例，對其所在里、鄰近里與所在鄉鎮作人口 與三級產業人口數成長趨勢初步分析，其次利用時間序列模式測試諸案例 在高速公路施工期與通車後，對人口與產業人口成長率是否有顯著之影響 ，最後分析並說明其影響程度、時程與範圍。 模式分析方面，本研究發現交流道所在里呈現之衝擊影響有正有負，而交 流道對鄰近里與所在鄉鎮人口與三級就業成長率之影響皆為正向，且一般 郊區交流道影響高於都會區交流道。另外交流道對附近地區的影響程度以 所在里最大，所在鄉鎮最小，而影響時程以通車後影響較為顯著，至於施 工階段人口成長率有略微下降之趨勢。另外在產業方面，交流道設置對二 、三級產業人口成長率皆有正向之影響，尤其為二級產業之製造業與水電 燃氣業，以及三級產業之商業與金融、保險、不動產及工商服務業。 This study explores the impacts of the freeway on the change of local population and employment in the neighboring interchange area with the cases study of Chung-Sun Freeway and 3rd national freeway. First, this study analyzes the growth trend of local population and employment. Second, the time-series model is established to test the effects on the local population and employment caused by the freeway. Finally, it analyzes and explains the impact level, time and scope. In model analysis, this study shows the impacts of the freeway , i.e. growth rates of local population and employment, on the canton where the interchange locates, remains uncertain, whereas those on the neighboring interchange area are positive. The study also reveals that the impacts of the freeway on suburban inter- change area are higher than those on metropolitan interchange area. Besides, the impact level of the canton where the inter- change locates is the highest than the other area . As for the impacts by the periods of time, the grow rates of population and mployment significantly increase in the period of the opening of the freeway, although the growth rate of population has dropped in the period of construction. In the industry, the impacts on secondary and tertiary industry in the neighboring interchange area are significantly positive, especially for the manufacture and public utilities among secondary industry, and for the commerce and financing, insurance, real estate and business services among tertiary industry.