一個決策過程的系統式思考型構

Abstract

為了應付人類決策思考內涵的複雜，過去之學者建立許多外顯的決策架構以引導決策者簡化問題的思考。不同的架構代表著不同的思考假設與方式，然而，若以認知改善做為討論問題思考過程的重點，則可以發現各種問題思考方式彼此之間是呈現一種相輔相成的情況。因此，值得提出一個有關決策思考架構的綜合性概念，以解釋決策問題現有各類思考的方式及內涵。 本研究以一般決策過程的階段性思考結果為基礎，整理並解析不同的決策思考型構及認知性質，並以其與相關的決策分析方法或工具相互對應。首先以一個人類知覺的三個構面為起點，構建出一個決策過程的基本思考型構。再以舉例的方式，討論直覺式、最佳模式及模擬模式的決策思考概念與方法，以及它們在此基本思考型構上的意義，然後提出在不可試誤的決策過程中，所產生的階段性思考結果，並據此建構出系統式思考型構。 在系統式思考型構中，本研究假設決策者參與決策過程的評估活動是不可替代的一環。因此若能將決策者對問題的看法做適當地表達，對決策過程的進行將有很大的影響。本研究將此一評估概念的表達過程，看成是一個系統形成的過程，並且引用"系統設計"的概念來協助此一表達過程的進行。在一般問題解決的文獻中，此"系統設計"概念常僅隱含在不同的思考方式中，而在方法的討論上被有意或無意的忽略，因此本研究特別在思考型構中加以提示及強調，並做較完整的討論。

To face the complex content of decision-making, scholars have built many explicit frameworks for supporting the simplification process of problem thinking. Different assumption and methods lead to different framework. However, these frameworks are complementary from the cognitive perspective. Therefore, a synthesized framework is deserved for integrating these existing problem thinking and decision framework s. This research used the stage result of thinking in decision processes to integrate and analyze the frameworks and cognitive attributes of related decision-making methods and tools. First, the three-dimension framework of human perception was used for proposing a fundamental framework for thinking in decision process. Then, the thinking concepts and methods of intuition, optimization, and simulation models were discussed by examples. Their corresponding meanings in the proposed framework were also introduced. Third, from the stage result of cognitive thinking that could not use trial-and-error experiment, this research built the framework for systematic thinking in decision process. In the framework for systematic thinking, the evaluation activities of decision-maker are essential in decision process. Therefore, the appropriate representation of decision problem from the decision-maker's viewpoint acts an important role in the progress of decision-making. This research recognized this representation activities as a system formulation process and used system design concept to support the implementation of this process. The system design concept was emphasized and discussed carefully to highlight the implicit contents of previous researches.