科技研究發展專案的連續多期效率評估

Abstract

本研究是以資料包絡分析法來分析科技研究發展專案之效率。科技研究發展是長期持續的投入，評估時應考量其過去的表現進行整體的執行評估。本研究的重點在於把連續多期的資源投入與產品合併考量，以綜合評估其整體效率。 傳統上，科技研究發展專案之評估以當期投入與產出作為評估基礎。成熟期或成長期的連續專案在產出上較佔優勢，因此評比上對於初期或探索期的科技研究發展專案較為不利。故提出連續多期的評估概念，加以改良。 實證研究以83~87年度的能源科技研究發展專案為分析對象。利用GIPOTE模式(Goal、Inputs、Process、Outputs、Transfer、Effects)整理投入項及產出項，進行資料包絡分析法的產出/投入效率分析。 本次研究的主要成果及結論如下： 1. 提出多條效率前緣之效率評估等級分類，使相對效率等級之劃分更為合理。 2. 同一效率前緣之評比過程中，由原有之總效率優先順序改為技術效率為優先，以符合效率前緣之概念。 3. 實證研究顯示，連續多期之效率評估與原有之單期效率評估，有實質上的差異。

In this research, we study the performance evaluation of R&D Projects by Data Envelopment Analysis. Due to R&D is a long-term investment, R&D projects should be evaluated by integrating information of current and past year. To evaluate performance of R&D projects with multi-periods is the major objective of this research. Traditionally, the evaluation of R&D projects is based on current year. In output point of view, it is good for a project in the mature-period or growth-period, but have disadvantage for a project just beginning or in the exploring-period. In this study propose the concept of multi-periods to improve the disadvantage of performance evaluation based on current year. This study adopts 5 years national R&D Projects Commissioned by Ministry of Economic Affair from 1994 to 1998. Using GIPOTE model(Goal、Inputs、Process、Outputs、Transfer、Effects) as evaluation framework to evaluation.The tool for performance evaluation in this sleedy is Data Envelopment Analysis. The major contributions of this study are: 1. Corresponding to the concept of efficiency frontior, this research provides multi-frontior curves to lable projects efficiency. 2. Changing the basis of efficiency classification from overall efficiency to technical efficiency in accordance with concept of efficiency frontior. 3. According to this research, it is different from evaluation with multi-periods to single-period. 1.1研究背景與動機........................................................................................ 1 1.2研究目的..................................................................................................... 6 1.3研究範圍與限制........................................................................................ 6 1.4研究架構與步驟........................................................................................ 7 第二章 文獻探討............................................................................................ 8 2.1 科技研發專案及其管理特性................................................................. 8 2.2 評估模式.................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 大型工業技術研究發展成果績效評估模式（IRON模式）...... 9 2.2.2 研究專案對產業影響追蹤分析模式（IRCE模式）.................... 10 2.2.3 科技專案計畫追蹤驗證評估模式（IROT模式）........................ 11 2.3 效率評估.................................................................................................... 12 2.4 跨期的績效評估....................................................................................... 14 2.4.1以效率的概念進行效能評估............................................................ 14 2.4.2不同時期的生產效率評估................................................................ 17 第三章 資料包絡分析法（DEA）方法論................................................. 22 3.1 效率............................................................................................................ 22 3.2包絡曲線基本概念................................................................................... 22 3.3資料包絡分析法的基本模式.................................................................. 24 3.3.1 CCR 模式............................................................................................ 24 3.3.2 BCC模式（技術效率及規模效率）............................................. 28 3.3.3 規模報酬判斷..................................................................................... 31 3.3.4 差額變數分析..................................................................................... 33 3.4 資料包絡分析法的特質......................................................................... 34 第四章 研究概念及架構............................................................................... 35 4.1 GIPOTE模式............................................................................................. 35 4.2 連續多期與單期...................................................................................... 37 4.3 效率分析................................................................................................... 40 4.3.1 效率分類.............................................................................................. 40 4.3.2 效率排序.............................................................................................. 42 4.4 實施流程.................................................................................................... 44 第五章 實證研究............................................................................................ 45 5.1 實證資料篩選 .......................................................................................... 45 5.2 實證結果分析 ........................................................................................... 47 5.2.1 評估結果............................................................................................... 47 5.2.2 差額變數分析...................................................................................... 50 5.2.3虛擬乘數分析....................................................................................... 50 5.3 個案說明.................................................................................................... 52 5.3.1 強勢效率單位...................................................................................... 52 5.3.2 邊緣效率單位...................................................................................... 53 5.3.3 效率前緣單位...................................................................................... 54 5.3.4 非效率前緣單位.................................................................................. 56 5.4 效率分析.................................................................................................... 59 5.4.1 效率分類............................................................................................... 59 5.4.2 效率排序............................................................................................... 60 5.4.3 多階式效率評選.................................................................................. 64 5.5 單期與連續多期比較.............................................................................. 66 第六章 結論及建議........................................................................................ 70 6.1 結論............................................................................................................ 70 6.2 未來研究方向及建議.............................................................................. 71 參考文獻 ............................................................................................................. 72