由技術及市場需求探討網路電話未來之發展

Abstract

摘 要 近年來Internet的快速發展，不但使個人電腦的需求增加，同時更刺激了數據、語音、影像等多媒體資料的傳遞。同時由於語音壓縮技術的進步，開始有人想要將語音資料經過數位壓縮、切成封包之後，利用Internet來傳輸，因此有了封包語音（Packet Voice）及網路電話概念的興起。同時，網路電話挾著通話費用低廉的魅力，在全球電信產業颳起了一陣旋風。 有鑑於此，本研究將從消費者的角度切入，以經濟部技術處（1996）自日本三菱總合研究所引進的技術預測方法（MRI）為主要架構，透過需求以及技術兩方面的調查，來探討網路電話的未來的發展趨勢。其研究結論如下： 1.根據需求調查的結果，消費者最為重視的網路電話功能為「音質清晰、不延遲」，其次為「資費便宜」、「操作容易」、「帳單查詢」、「來話身份顯示」、「語音郵件」、「視訊傳輸」、「傳真功能」、「常用電話簿」、「答錄機」等。 2.依據消費者所重視的網路電話功能項目進行技術調查。在網路電話各項服務功能的商業化應用時間方面，本研究發現大部分都可於2002年以前實現，但「資費便宜」要到2003年才能實現，而且「視訊傳輸」要等到2003年之後才有商業化應用的機會。 3.在阻礙網路電話服務功能商業化應用的因素方面，影響最大的為「技術因素」，其次是「市場因素」及「成本因素」。

ABSTRACT In recent years, the rapidly development of the Internet not only raises the demand of PCs, but also increases the transmission of multimedia contents like data, voice, and video. Due to the advancement of voice compression technology, people can transport compressing voice packets through the Internet. Hence, the“Internet telephone”may prevail. Internet Phone has the advantages of low cost and multimedia contents, therefore, it caused serious threat to existing telecom carriers. This research probes the trend of Internet telephone from the consumer perspective and refers the MRI model(a technological forecasting method that Ministry of Economic Affairs introduced from Mitsubishi Economic Research Institute in 1996) as the major framework. Passing through the need and technology survey, we reach the conclusions as below: First, the functions that consumers value, in order of importance to consumers, are “better tone quality”, “low charge”, “ease of use”, “billing inquiring”, “caller information”, “voice mail”, “video transmission”, “fax”, “phonebook”, and “answering machine”. Second, the time for the commercial applications of all the above functions will probably fall before 2002. “Low charge” will realize in 2003, and “video transmission” will be achieved after 2003. Third, the factors that are obstructing the commercial applications include technology, market and cost. Technology is the most important factor, followed by market and cost.