從財務人員的觀點探討現行財務預測資訊公開體系

Abstract

由於台灣經濟快速的成長及政府鼓勵，使得證券市場蓬勃發展已成為企業籌措資金的重要管道，同時也是眾多投資人重要理財及投資工具，因此資訊是否充分、公開、正確，對於證券市場的健全發展具有重大影響及效果。從民國80年起，政府就開始推動強制性財務預測，其目的在於促使公司資訊及時、充分、公開，杜絕公司任意發佈盈餘預測訊息，然而此項制度執行至今，雖然使用範圍不斷擴大、增訂了各項標準，但預測品質一直被質疑，甚至被懷疑成為內線交易及炒作工具，因此本研究試圖從財務人員的觀點探討現行財務預測資訊公開體系，進而了解公司管理當局及財務人員編製的行為動機及方法，以作為判斷財測品質之依據，來加以合理應用並協助證券主管機關了解公司管理當局對於財務預測之看法及實際執行時之困難，作為未來法令修正之參考。 本研究係以已上市、上櫃公司，並有編製財務預測的財會主管或主辦人員做為實證對象，並以問卷方式蒐集資料、彙總後加以分析。 研究結果發現下列情形： 一、大部份受訪者贊成，應取消強制性財測，可自願公開財測、財務報表應簡化並以區間估計方式表達，會計師應核閱財測。 二、現行強制性財測對於發生特定情況之當年度須公開財測，受訪者較持肯定之態度。 三、大部份受訪者認為現行財測更正(新)期限及標準不適當。 四、大部份受訪者都是以非數量方式編製財測。 五、受訪公司公告之財測和內部預算約有半數是不一致。 六、會計師不應替客戶編製財務預測，會影其響獨立性。 七、財測向上調整比向下調整會較及時被更新。 八、董事會通過之財測達成率並不會較高。 九、受訪者認為可取消上市(櫃)每日所列示之公司交易本益比。 十、大部份受訪者建議主管機關訂定利率、匯率、股票指數做為編製財測之參考。

Due to the rapid growth of Taiwan economy and favorable government policies, the stock market continues to develop and has become an important funding source for businesses. At the same time, many investors use the market to invest and manage their finance. Therefore, whether there are adequate, public, and accurate information disclosures can profoundly affect the future development of the market. In 1991 the government began to enforce mandatory financial forecast in order to ensure that listed companies disclose information timely and adequately, and also to prevent listed companies from randomly announcing earning projections. Over the years, although the mandatory financial forecast requirement had undertaken a wider scope and various guidelines were set forth, the quality of the forecasts has always been questioned. Some people even suspect that certain companies use the forecasts to manipulate stock prices and facilitate insider trading. This study attempts to find out financial personnel’s viewpoint under the current mandatory financial forecast system in order to better understand the activities and intentions of the companies and their financial personnel when preparing financial forecasts. The result is then used to determine the quality of financial forecasts. As a result, the forecasts can be used more reasonably. Moreover, the government securities agencies’ better understanding of the companies’ thinking and difficulties when preparing financial forecasts can serve as references for future securities law amendments. This study was conducted by sending questionnaires to the financial personnel of publicly listed companies that make formal financial forecasts. Their feedback was collected, and their responses were analyzed . The analysis shows the following: 1.Most respondents are in favor of abolishing mandatory financial forecasts, allowing voluntary discloses of financial forecasts, simplifying the forecast financial statements and using a range instead of a fixed number when forecasting numbers, and having accountants reviewing the forecasts. 2.With regard to the special triggering events when a company is required to disclose financial forecast, most respondents agree that the forecast should be disclosed for the year when the triggering event occurs. 3.Most respondents reflect that the existing deadline and guidelines for updating financial forecasts are improper. 4.Most respondents use non-quantitative methods to prepare their financial forecasts. 5.About half of the companies have internal financial budgets which are different from their publicly announced financial forecasts. 6.Accountants should not prepare financial forecasts for their clients because their objectivity can be affected. 7.Upward financial forecast revisions are updated more timely then downward revisions. 8.Financial forecasts approved by the board of directors are not always more achievable. 9.Respondents think that the daily publicly announced price-to-earning ratios (PE ratios) can be abolished. 10.Most respondents suggest that relevant government securities agencies should set forth interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and stock market index numbers for companies to use as references when preparing their financial forecasts.