我國主要武器系統發展的政策探討

Abstract

我國經過長期的經濟與工業發展，已從開發中國家躍升為新興工業國家，同時我國主要武器系統發展的軌跡，也由早期的軍援與軍購為主轉變到以自力研發為主，最後由於國際武器市場競爭的壓力，再由自力研發轉變為以外購為主；這種武器系統獲得政策的重大轉變，將嚴重影響自力研發能力的成長與維持，因此如何在外購與自力研發間取得平衡，是一個政策規劃的問題。本研究提出武器系統發展的特性，並採用系統動態學為方法論來建構我國主要武器系統發展的模型，用以詮釋我國武器系統獲得政策對中科院研發能力發展造成的衝擊。研究結果指出對應於我國三種不同的武器獲得政策，我國主要武器系統研發能力可能的三種主要發展趨勢。

A long period of economic and industrial development has allowed Taiwan to evolve into newly industrialized country (NIC). Simultaneously, the development of her major weapon systems has evolved from foreign weapons acquisition to independent development due to establishing research and development (R&D) capabilities. However, competitive pressure in the international arms market has finally led Taiwan to return to foreign acquisition, and consequently rapidly eroding her R&D capability. Balancing foreign acquisition and independent development is a policy analysis problem for Taiwan. This study applies the system dynamics methodology to construct a weapon systems development model for Taiwan. This model is used to analyze the impact of acquisition policy. The results indicate three major possible growth curves for weapon systems R&D capability based on alternative weapon systems acquisition policies.