台灣半導體製造業之景氣循環與經營績效分析

Abstract

近年來，我國的半導體產業成長快速，無論在產值及產能，台灣成長幅度均遠高於全球成長幅度，也因此我國在半導體市場的佔有率年提高。而依世界半導體協會(WSC)統計，我國IC產業近幾年的投資速度遠超過其他先進國家，以資本支出佔營業額比重來看，自1995年至1998年都在60%左右，皆遠超出其他先進國家。由於IC產業正慢慢地成為主導台灣經濟動力的骨幹，其重大投資計畫將攸關整體製造業的發展與競爭力的提升；其蓬勃發展的結果，亦將積極帶動整體經濟之成長。 然而當半導體產業景氣大好時，由於從市場籌募資金相當容易，半導體廠商大幅增加投資擴充設備及廠房；當景氣衰退時，由於籌資不易，廠商無力持續擴廠、減少投資的需求，為了避免因景氣低迷時投資不足而造成下一波景氣復甦產能不足的情形發生，半導體廠商是否應不論景氣良莠、持續投資，隨時進行設備擴充及研發新的製程技術？因此本研究以與景氣循環習習相關的半導體產業為研究樣本，探討半導體企業在景氣循環下之經營績效與投資決策的關聯性。 本文研究採用SPSS統計套裝軟體分析，研究結果歸納如下： 一、產業景氣循環與企業的經營績效均呈現顯著正相關，顯示半導體晶圓製 造業的經營績效深受產業景氣循環的影響。 二、企業的投資決策對經營績效的資產報酬率（ROA）及股東權益報酬率 （ROE）無顯著的關聯性，而對經營績效的銷售報酬率(ROS)及經濟附加價 值有顯著的關連性。 三、 我國半導體製造業自1992年到1999年八年期間，無論經營績效的良窳， 圴持續的進行投資。 四、我國半導體製造業的景氣循環與企業的投資決策亦不具有顯著的相關性， 顯示我國半導體製造業無視景氣循環的波動，於本研究期間內仍持續的進 行投資。 然而台灣半導體產業雖有持續不斷的投資於資本支出。但值得注意的是，如何保持相當的資金以維持足夠且持久的投資決策？以及投資決策是否能對企業產生足夠的經濟附加價值？如此方能確保台灣半導體製造業在世界舞台的永續獲利力及競爭力。

In recent years, we saw phenomenally faster growth in Taiwan’s IC industry than any other countries in terms of both revenue and capacity. As a result, Taiwan’s share of worldwide semiconductor market has risen as well. According to World Semiconductor Consortium (WSC), the investments by Taiwan’s IC companies far more outpaced the more developed countries. Take the ratio of capital expenditure to sales revenue as an example, Taiwan maintained at about 60% persistently from 1995 through 1998, which far more than exceeds other developed countries. As the IC industry is becoming the backbone that powers Taiwan’s economic momentum, the development of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector as well as the improvement of its competitiveness all hinge greatly on the investments by Taiwan’s IC industry. The IC industry has an obvious business cycle. When the business is booming and it is easy to raise money in the market, the IC companies tend to expand their production capacity aggressively. When the market is depressed and it becomes hard to raise money in the market, the IC companies tend to refrain from expansion. To prevent under-investment during the slack seasons from exacerbating under-capacity in the coming boom, should the IC companies continue their capital investment and technology development regardless the stage of the cycle? To find out the answer, this dissertation explores the relationship between operation performance and investment decision in the semiconductor industry, which is very cycle-sensitive. Using SPSS for regression analysis, we deduct into the following conclusions: 1. The correlation between business cycle and operation performance is both positive and significant. It shows that the IC foundry industry’s operation performance is highly affected by business cycle. 2. There is no significant co-relation between a company’s investment decision and its return on asset (ROA) and its return on equity (ROE). But there is obvious co-relation between a company’s investment decisions and its return on sales (ROS) as well as its economic value added (EVA). 3. Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers continued their investments during the eight years from 1992 through 1998, regardless of their operation performance. 4. The correlation between the investment decisions by Taiwan’s IC industry and business cycle is not significant. This means that Taiwan’s IC manufacturers continued capacity investment during the contraction stage of the business cycle. Even so, one cannot but wonder could they retain enough cash for sustainable and longer-term investment? And could their investment decisions generate proportionate EVA? Only by securing these can Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers ensure their continued profitability and competitiveness in the world.