不同排程組合下晶圓廠交期預測因子之研究

Abstract

製造系統中訂單的完工時間，會受到許多因子所影響，如：訂單特徵、系統狀態、…、等。這些因子對訂單完工時間的影響程度，依生產作業控制策略（投料法則、派工法則）的不同而有所改變。對於不同投料法則與派工法則之排程組合，應挑選影響完工時間的顯著因子來預測完工時間，進而設計應搭配之交期指派法則。 本研究首先將整理目前晶圓製造相關研究所使用過的投料法則、派工法則，挑選引用次數較高的法則納入研究中。針對每一項投料法則與派工法則之排程組合，經由模擬工具與統計分析，過濾出影響訂單完工時間的因子。利用逐步迴歸方法，發展每種排程組合應搭配之交期指派法則。

In a manufacturing system, completion time of an order is affected by many factors related to order characteristics and system status and is very difficult to predict accurately. Also, the level of influence of each factor on completion time of an order may depend on the production system characteristics, such as the releasing and dispatching rule used. Discussed in this paper are a method to identify factors that have significant effects on completion times of orders under various combinations of scheduling rules through computer simulation and statistics analyzes, then develop due date assignment rules. The first step of the research is selecting releasing and dispatching rules that had more cited times in related research of wafer fabrication. Second, for each combination of scheduling rules combine simulation and statistics analyze to find out the effective predicted factors of completion times of orders. Third, for each combination of scheduling rules establish efficient due date assignment rules according to the effective factors through regression model to predict the due date of orders accurately.