旅行者對捷運行車事故延誤時間可忍受度之研究

Abstract

在這訊息萬變、步伐快速的社會，任何時間被延誤，均是人們所無法容忍，尤其行車事故延誤時間，均關係著社會的成本，以及代表社會文明的程度。行車事故延誤時間一直為旅行者所無法忍受，如台北捷運公司在眾多的旅客抱怨訴願書中，捷運行車事故延誤時間之訴願佔有相當大比例。可見現代人對行車事故延誤時間的可忍受度越來越有限。究竟旅行者對行車事故延誤時間為多少才是旅行者所能忍受，這將值得深入探討，針對此課題本研究將探討捷運系統發生行車事故延誤時間時，旅行者感受之可忍受延誤時間以及旅行者可忍受度。 在構建行車事故延誤時間旅行者可忍受度之研究方法上，基於旅行者可忍受度在於探討某特定期間內發生行車事故延誤時間，旅行者感受之可忍受延誤時間的機率，故將運用工程可靠度干擾理論方法建立旅行者可忍受度模式。 當行車事故延誤時間超過旅行者可忍受程度時，旅行者視必尋求轉移改搭其他交通運具。本研究將會採用經濟學彈性理論探討行車事故延誤時間的變動引起旅行者轉移運具之變動程度。 旅行者對捷運行車事故延誤時間之可忍受度，經本研究探討發現，在八十六年四月至八十七年十二月期間發生之行車事故延誤時間，尖峰時段下，無補償措施經有補償措施後，旅行者可忍受度比例由0.56增加至0.62。非尖峰時段與假日時段等，在無補償措施經有補償措施後，旅行者可忍受度比例由0.65增加至0.69。 旅行者轉移運具的彈性分析上，經本研究實例探討發現，若經有補償措施後，旅行者轉移運具彈性在各時段上，均有緩和變小現象。換言之，旅行者轉移運具變動程度變小。

In this modern society, people desire to obtain instant and fast-speed information. The delay of time is not tolerable to them, especially the train accident delay time that concerns the society’s prime cost and social civilization. It is evidently that passengers can not tolerate the train accident delay time. For Taipei Rapid Transit Corporation, the train accident delay time sits a rather high percentage of passenger claim rate. Therefore travelers can no longer tolerate their time has been delayed. We may wonder that how much delay time for train accident is endurable for all the passengers. This study will research about this subject, which concerns the delay time for rapid train accident, passenger’s tolerable delay time and passenger’s toleration. In order to construct the research method of the passenger’s toleration, based on passenger’s toleration is concern about the delay time happened within train accident, as well, the probability of allowable passenger’s tolerable delay-time, using interference theory in engineering reliability to establish the passenger’s toleration model. When the time for delay surpassed the passenger’s toleration, they might seek for another vehicle to reach their destination. This study adopt the elasticity theory in economics to probe into the delay time for train accident which makes an alteration to passengers changing their vehicle to what degree. According to this study, we research that during peak period, the passenger’s toleration between April 1997 to December 1998 increases from 0.56 to 0.62 since the company takes the indemnifying measure. Also the passenger’s toleration increases from 0.65 to 0.69 during off-peak period and holiday period. When analyzing the elasticity for passengers shifting to other vehicles, we find that the alteration is lessened in all period of time if the indemnifying measure is taken. In other words, the influence for passengers shifting to other vehicles minimized since travelers get compensation.