台鐵實施車種簡化後之旅客轉乘行為研究

Abstract

因應高速鐵路之強大競爭，台灣鐵路管理局(簡稱台鐵)正積極規劃其未來之定位與經營策略，而「簡化車種以提昇其營運效率」乃成為台鐵積極努力的目標。根據台鐵之規劃，運行之車種將簡化成「每站都停之電聯車」與「僅停靠大站之自強號列車」兩種。因此，未來台鐵之旅客可能將面臨許多是否轉車之抉擇，例如從大站欲往小站時，乘客可能選擇先搭自強號至目的地附近之大站，然候再轉搭電聯車至目的地小站；亦可選擇全程搭乘電聯車到達目的地小站。旅客在面臨上述問題之決策上，除了考慮轉車是否方便外，尚包括等車時間是否很長、是否有座位、總旅行時間之長短及總旅行費用之多寡等情況。而台鐵亦很希望能夠知道旅客之轉乘行為，協助決定自強號與電聯車之行駛區間長度、班距與費率，以達到更好的營運效率。 本研究基於上述理由，乃嘗試利用敘述性偏好之方法，探討台鐵在車種簡化後，影響民眾換車轉搭決策行為之因素。本研究首先透過系統分析以構建決策者之理念架構，繼而利用敘述性偏好之問卷設計及調查取得民眾之決策資料，並藉助離散選擇理論之二項羅吉特模式校估出民眾轉搭之決策行為，最後並針對影響決策之重要屬性變數進行敏感度分析。 本研究針對不同旅次端點型態分別進行模式構建與分析，研究結果顯示「車內時間」、「車外等待時間」、「自強號座位之有無」及「電車座位之有無」等為顯著影響變數。三種旅次端點型態之「全程搭乘電車」機率皆隨總旅次長度增加而遞減；自強號座位之有無對「小站到小站」的影響程度隨總旅次長度增加而提昇；在「大站到大站」的旅次情況下，若總旅次長度愈短時，則電車座位有無對旅客決策行為的影響愈大。情境分析結果顯示，「大站到大站」在里程78公里以下、「大站到小站」在里程170公里以下及「小站到小站」在里程279公里以下，旅客選擇「全程搭乘電車」機率超過五成。「小站到小站」旅客在里程127公里以內會以「全程搭乘電車」為主要選擇（機率大於九成）；「大站到大站」旅客在里程329公里以上會以「全程搭乘自強號」為主要選擇（機率大於九成）。本研究之結果除了可以揭發台鐵旅客在面臨車種簡化後之車種選擇行為外，更可提供台鐵參考，以作為規劃列車起迄點與班次、及訂定票價費率之依據。

The Taiwan Railroad Administration (TRA) offers four types of trains in operation currently. Some people argue that too many types of trains in operation have brought ineffective operation for TRA. Facing the coming of High Speed Rail, TRA is eager to search the effective operation strategies in order to keep himself alive in the competitive market. One of the available strategies to keep TRA competitive is to simplify the types of trains for operation. That is, to keep only the Express trains and All-stop trains in operation is recognized to increase the capacity for train operation. Some people might be willing to transfer their trains if they could gain some benefit comparing with taking the direct (non-transfer) trains. This study is undertook to study the travelers' decision making between direct and transfer trains. A conceptual framework is first developed to formulate the travelers' decision behavior between direct and transfer trains. The Stated Preference Method is employed to collect travelers' decision data. And then a Binary Logit Model is used to calibrate their decision behavior and explore the significant factors affecting their decisions. The results of this study show the in-vehicle travel time, and seat availability for both express and all-stop trains are significant in the transfer decision model for the Major-to-Major stations travel. In-vehicle travel time and seat availability for express trains are the significant factors in the Major-to-Minor stations model. In-vehicle travel time, out-vehicle travel time, and seat availability for express trains are the significant factors in the Minor-to-Minor stations model. If the trip length increases, the probability of choosing all-stop trains will decrease in all types of trips. The longer the trip is, the more effect of the seat availability of express trains will have for the Minor-to-Minor stations travel model. Some other interesting results are also found in this study. The results of this research will not only provide a set of valuable information of travelers' transfer decision between Express and All-stop trains, but also help TRA to determine the train operation strategies, including the length of train trip, fares, as well as the train frequency and schedule.