建設公司財務危機動態預警模型之研究

Abstract

近年來營建業內需緊縮景氣低迷，財務體質欠佳之營建企業，易受資金調度問題而發生財務危機，致使與其資金往來之相關企業亦可能產生連鎖反應，而造成整體經營環境愈趨嚴峻，嚴重影響產業之競爭力，故為促成經營體質之健全，達成產業穩定經營之目標，實需針對營建企業之經營特性，建立具實用價值之財務危機預警模型，提供企業管理者隨時修正其經營策略之參考，並作為政府協助及控管企業之依據，而降低企業財務危機發生所造成之損害。因此本研究以台灣證券交易所之營造建材類的32 家上市上櫃建設公司為研究樣本，利用統計檢定技術分析13 家危機及19 家正常公司之財務差異性，解析建設公司經營之關鍵財務變數，並克服傳統預警模式忽略財務資料累積訊息之靜態分析缺失，採用時間序列分析之向量自我迴歸移動平均模式及累積和管制圖等技術，建構建設公司財務危機動態預警模型。研究結果顯示，本研究建立之預警模型準確率達83.33％且於財務危機發生前六季即可偵測出公司財務狀況惡化的轉折點及其趨 勢，同時因模型之累積和管制圖可提供線上即時（Real-time）的功能而大幅提昇財務預測模型之準確性及實用性，足可提供國內建設公司規劃財務調度策略之參考，並協助政府補助及控管建築企業之用。

In recent years, the construction industry has been suffering from the recession of domestic demand. For the companies near the edge of financial distress, the difficulties from the capital dispatching could lead to business failure. In order to sustain the soundness of the business and achieve the goal of a stable industrial development, a practical precautionary model for financial distress must be established in terms of the management characteristics of the construction industry. In this research, 32 samples are taken from the Real Estate Developers in Taiwan. The analysis of statistical examination among 13 failure companies and 19 healthy companies is used to discriminate the significant of financial variables and overcome the static analysis shortages of traditional precautionary models causing by ignoring the information of financial accumulation data. Then, using the time series analysis of vector Auto-Regressive Moving-Average model integrating with multivariable CUSUM model, establish a dynamic predicting model for financial distress in the construction companies in Taiwan. The result of this research shows that this newly established model could reach a precision rate of 83.33% and is able to predict the turning point and trends of the worsening financial conditions in the companies 6 seasons before the actual financial crisis takes place. In addition, because the CUSUM chart could provide the “Real-time” function, the precision and practicality of the predicting model will be increased significantly. The model could be a reference for the financial adjusting strategies in domestic companies and further assist governmental subsidies as well as control and manage the construction companies.