探討iPhone新舊世代在不同通路間的擴散效果

Abstract

台灣行動通訊市場包含國內外眾多品牌以及不同產品特徵以迎合大眾消費者的需求。國外廠商進入其他國家要如何讓新產品在市場中快速成長是管理者關心的議題，掌握通路是最關鍵的因素。然而iPhone手機以「世代」的概念推出新產品，本文透過台灣銷售iPhone資料探討新舊兩代在不同通路之間自我蠶食效應，以及在市場消長的週期性。進一步研究新舊世代在不同通路商的空間(Spatial)擴散情形，過程間會有社會濡染（Social Contagion）的現象產生，產品會透過具中心位置領導通路加速產品的擴散速率。台灣通訊市場主要由電信系統商掌握第一階通路，其次為個人獨立門市(第二階通路)，分別提供消費者不同的購機方案及客戶服務藉以達到差異化。

經由實證結果得出：電信系統通路商和獨立門市商皆會受到前期採用者口碑傳播影響。產品甫上市，系統商為產品擴散的據點，會透過大量的大眾傳播和較強的行銷力度去宣傳產品；獨立門市通路採用者會受到前一階段採用者的口碑傳播影響，並且透過行銷策略組合導向(Marketing Mix Driven)提供消費者更彈性的購買方式。

In Taiwan, there are numerous brands with different product features in mobile phone communication industry to meet consumers’ diversified needs. Therefore, if one foreign brand wants to enter Taiwan and grows fast, the most influential factor is control the channels of market. However, this research uses iPhone sales data in Taiwan to discuss the Self-Cannibalization effect between old and new generations in two-level channel. First level is telecommunication operator and the second level is individual independent store. We also observe the life cycles of iPhone3G and iPhone 3GS in both of channels and meanwhile forecast and analyze the sales. Furthermore, we can see the space spatial in two channels. In the process of spatial, products will increase growing rate through the central leading channel (first level). They also provide various purchase packages and services for consumers differently.

Finally, the results of this study provide both of two channels will be affected by previous adopter’s word-of-mouth. In the beginning of product launch, telecommunication operators become first sale point, and they use external effect like mass media and strong marketing effort to promote products; individual independent stores will attract adopters which were influenced by previous adopters’ word-of-mouth, the internal effect, so they use marketing mix driven strategy to provide customer more flexible purchase way.