新興國家高速鐵路路線：以烏克蘭為例

Abstract

烏克蘭為歐洲大陸中幅員廣大的國家之一，具有主要城市彼此座落甚遠的特性。目前其陳舊之鐵路網絡，僅能提供耗時的日間服務或隔夜班車，從首都基輔至西部、東部和南部的市中心需要八至十二小時。這不僅限制了國境內交通機動性，且成為區域發展的障礙。雖然烏克蘭鐵路在2012年歐洲足球錦標賽前進行改善，但其引進的IC +列車並未解決烏克蘭鐵路所面臨的挑戰。由於引進高速鐵路(high speed rail, HSR)是已開發國家為運輸改善政策主流，故本研究著重建立針對烏克蘭高速鐵路的路線規劃方法。其研究目的為以下兩點：1.引發烏克蘭國內對高速鐵路規劃的科學性方法的討論，並進一步提出適於烏克蘭高速鐵路計劃的方法；2.本研究將規劃連接基輔與烏克蘭最東部的商業中心－頓涅茨克之高速鐵路路線。 本研究的規劃方法分為兩個階段：方案產生(alternative generation)和方案評估(alternative evaluation)。第一階段為列出鐵路路線的替選方案，此階段目的為列舉可能的路線及定義排除不可行方案的準則。本研究透過電腦模擬列出所有可能的路線，並採用階層分析法（analytic hierarchy process , AHP）及理想解類似度順序偏好法（technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution , TOPSIS），以選擇替代路線做進一步的評估。第二階段使用運輸需求分析（transportation demand analysis , TDA）和地 理資訊系統（geographic information system , GIS），針對每條路線的特徵進行分析，最終確定最適路線。 本研究的主要貢獻為以下兩點：1.提供一高速鐵路路線規劃之方法；2.並依據建議參考之評選準則提出最佳之高速鐵路路線規劃。所建議之最佳路線為連結基輔、切爾卡瑟、克里沃羅格、聶伯城及頓涅茨克等城市。本研究所提出之方法與成果可作為後續研究之參考，後續研究者可依據本研究之基礎提出進一步之觀點及成果，或是發展相關議題，如本研究建議路線之可行財務方案。

Ukraine is one of the largest countries of Europe and its major cities are situated far away from each other. The current railway network is obsolete and provides either overnight or time-consuming daytime service, so it takes 8-12 hours to get from the capital city of Kyiv to the regional centers in the West, East and South. This limits mobility inside the country and creates obstacles for regional development. Although Ukrainian railroads were improved before the UEFA Euro 2012 Championship, introduction of IC+ trains did not solve challenges of Ukrainian railroad. As high speed rail (HSR) introduction is a mainstream in transportation improvement policies in developed countries, this research makes an attempt on developing a route planning approach for Ukrainian HSR. This study aims at two objectives: to start a scientific discussion of HSR in Ukraine, and to propose a method, that can be used in further HSR planning in Ukraine. The HSR line offered will connect Kyiv with Donetsk, the most eastern business center of Ukraine. This study develops the planning approach in two main phases: alternative generation and alternative evaluation. The first phase generates route alternatives. The most important components of this phase are identifying possible routes and defining rules to cut off infeasible alternatives. The possible routes are identified via a computer simulation that generates the full list of the routes available. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), the alternative routes are selected for further evaluations. The second phase uses transportation demand analysis (TDA) and geographic information system (GIS) to analyze the characteristics of each route and finally determine the optimal route. This study results in two contributions: it introduces a method of HSR route planning and recommends the optimal HSR route considering the chosen criteria. The route connects Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kryvy Rih, Dniprodzerzhyns’k, Dnipropetrovs’k, Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk. The proposed methods and results of this study can be used for the further studies in this field. Future researchers can either improve the ideas and results of this study or develop neighboring issues such as possible financing scenarios according to the results of this study.