智慧型手機於通路間之擴散效果及影響因素研究

Abstract

行動通訊市場競爭激烈，手持式行動裝置技術發展迅速，在傳統功能式手機(feature phone)滲透率極高且幾近飽和的情況下，智慧型手機(smartphone)掀起國內外品牌大廠的另一波戰爭。然而，技術競逐有一定的限制，除了洞悉消費者需求及偏好，了解市場特性以掌握影響創新擴散的關鍵要素是值得討論的議題。以台灣行動通訊市場而言，複雜的通路結構及合作關係，是主宰著智慧型手機能否勝出的關鍵推手。有別於以往創新擴散模式過於簡化的假設，本研究試圖以通路的角度切入，將台灣的通路結構分為兩階，一階通路為電信系統商主導的直營及特約門市；二階通路為獨立通訊門市。以台灣智慧型手機銷售資料為分析主體，將通路特性變數、品牌及產品屬性變數納入研究之中，探討智慧型手機於通路之間的擴散效果，以及行銷組合(marketing mix)驅動創新擴散的關鍵因素。

本研究實證結果發現，台灣智慧型手機是由一階通路為中心向二階通路擴散，在綁約方式購機的條件限制下，透過通路而形成口碑擴散效果。經由二項羅吉特模式分析發現，強勢品牌、以合約方式購機、產品創新程度較高，對一階通路相對於二階通路的擴散效果為正向顯著關係；產品功能屬性變數對一階通路相對於二階通路的擴散則為負向顯著關係。表示不同通路傾向推動的產品有別，電信系統商掌握門號主導權，與手機品牌大廠合作進而銷售其主力產品；獨立通訊門市則受到一階通路採用者的口碑擴散(word-of-mouth)影響，目的在於推動產品的擴散，也因此產品功能屬性較佳的產品在二階通路的擴散速度較快。

Mobile telecommunications market is highly competitive triggered by mobile technology advancements. While feature phone penetration has been reaching saturation point, the smartphone competition is heating up. In addition to technological advancements of features and specifications, the understanding of consumer preference, market characteristics and the key factors of innovation diffusion process can help manufacturers gain market share. Distribution channels play an important role in the diffusion process of Taiwan mobile telecommunications market. The research distinguished distribution channels into two degrees, the first degree distribution channel consisted of the related stores of telecommunications operator, and the second degree distribution channel was defined as independent retailer. We conducted a model to study the diffusion process across distribution channels and its influence key factors. The sales data set was retrieved from an operator, which included brand, price, and product features.

The study has provided new insights into diffusion process of smartphone. Results from Logistic Regression Model showed that diffusion of innovations was a two-stage word-of-mouth process, from the first degree channel to the second ones, and the diffusion process was under the condition of different ways of buying. Brands and innovation of products had positive effects on the diffusion process; product attributes had negative effects. The research indicates that the first degree channel (operator) has the advantage of license, which strengthen ties with major manufactures; the second degree channel (independent retailer) affected by the adopters of first degree channel aims to accelerate the diffusion process.