全球太陽光電產業的市場環境變遷趨勢及台灣太陽光電產業的因應策略

Abstract

各國發展太陽光電產業一開始就有幾個明確的發展里程碑，這些里程碑可簡單描述如下：1.以躉購費率（Feed-in Tariff, FIT ) 機制做為市場投資誘因，擴大供需； 2.造成競爭(打破寡佔)，價跌量增(需求增加)； 3.與市電同價，全球市場跟進，擴大全球規模； 4.太陽能發電低於市電價格，躉購電價機制退場，傳統石化電力加速被再生能源取代。這個模型又稱為太陽能產業發展路線圖(Roadmap)，雖然有路線圖但在各國政府引導太陽能產業的過程中，由於多重因素的影響，使得產業依然迷路失去方向，2011-2012年全球太陽能光電廠商的營運績效均大幅滑落，中國、美國及歐洲過去表現優異的大廠，就在這2-3年間陸續破產重整；所有太陽光電產商都希望能快儘快找到適當的市場策略，以儘快做出新的市場佈局。因此本研究主要在探討太陽光電市場的產業核心價值鏈的轉移並提供一些有用的策略建議給台灣太陽能廠商做為參考，希望這些建議可以有助於台灣廠商突破市場僵局。

關鍵字：太陽光電產業、躉購費率、價值鏈

All nations usually setup several significant milestones for photovoltaic market development. The development progress can be divided into 4 milestones: 1. Government set up Feed-in Tariff system as the investment incentive, based on this incentive to make supply and demand become lager and lager. 2. When more and more PV suppliers enter the market the stronger competition will break oligopoly market structure and lead the PV cost lower and lower. 3. After the levelized cost of solar energy reach to grid parity, more and more countries will keep increasing the solar power capacity among their energy portfolio. 4. If the solar LCOE reach to grid under, the FIT mechanism can be out of market operation. The solar power is fuel free, at this milestone the PV power having competitive advantage with the fossil energy even without government subsidy. The development model is so called PV roadmap. All the solar companies knew this roadmap, yet still missed direction. During the year 2011-2012 almost all of operation performance solar companies were much worse than ever. Many of past performance outstanding PV companies in China, USA and Europe all went bankrupt. Face the changing market environment, all PV companies would like to set up new strategies to meet the requirement of changing market environment. And hence this thesis is mainly analysis the core value chain how to shift and provide some useful new strategy suggestions to Taiwan Photovoltaic companies. I hope these suggestions will be helpful for them to break through the market deadlock.

Keywords：Photovoltaic Industry, Feed-in Tariff, Value Chain