探討數位匯流如何影響中國大陸3C產品之消長

Abstract

本研究主要關注中國大陸3C產品在數位匯流影響下，市場需求發展及影響需求發展之因素。數位匯流整合電信、電腦與電視三大領域，因此本研究即以手機、個人電腦與彩色電視產品在2003~2012年期間，市場規模的數據資料，透過趨勢分析與敘述統計的方式，觀察各產品市場的消長現象與速度。並經過比較手機、個人電腦與彩色電視產品，在使用者採納產品的考量因素上的差異，因素包含知覺有用性、易用性、相容性、移動性及使用內容，來分析數位匯流下，不同考量因素對於3C產品市場需求的消長或取代現象。此外，彙整中國大陸3C產品市場的營運建議，提供未來台灣3C產品相關公司進入市場之參考。藉由本研究的分析，得知中國大陸3C產品未來將有以下發展趨勢：1.智慧型手機在移動性上具有相對優勢，電視與電腦部份市場需求被智慧型手機市場納入，智慧型手機需求未來會繼續成長，產生「一機在手」的現象。2.未來3C產品在功能上會越來越相近，差異只在裝置螢幕尺寸不同，操作系統也將跨越不同平台。3C產品不再以功能區分，而會以螢幕尺寸跟運算能力做區隔。3.城鎮地區電視市場達到飽和，部分市場將被手機與電腦瓜分。農村地區因為發展前期電視需求較低，因此在發展過程中，產生部分電視需求轉移到手機需求的現象。

This study focuses on the market demand and future trends for 3C products under the impact of digital hub in China. The digital hub integrates three kinds of products: telecommunications, computer, and television. This study bases on market size data of 3C products in different categories during 2003 to 2012 in China. Via trend analysis and descriptive statistics, this study analyzes the growth rate for each category of the market and the speed of the growth. After comparing differences in factors of user adoption on 3C products, this study analyzes the growth or substitution phenomenon in market demand of 3C products caused by digital hub. The factors include perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, compatibility, mobility, and digital context. According to the analysis of this study, 3C products in China may have the following trends: 1. A part of the TV and computer market demand will be absorbed by the smartphone market demand; therefore, the demand of smart phones will continue to grow in the future, resulting in “a smartphone in hand” phenomenon. 2. Functions provided by 3C products tends to be similar, the difference will only be the screen size of a device. The operating system will also be installed on different platforms. 3C products will be distinct in screen size and computing power instead of functionality. 3. The TV market reaches saturation in urban area, such that part of the TV market will be carved up by the phone and PC market. Due to early development of lower TV demand in rural areas, part of TV demand will transfer to mobile phone demand in the later development process.