美國銀行業競爭力指標之軌跡研究

Abstract

銀行業是企業融通和民眾借貸之主要平台，在社會上扮演了重要的金融中介角色，因此對於銀行業我們會格外重視其長期經營的能力。過去的研究著重在找到可能面臨失敗的銀行，然而卻很少有研究在探討未來可能繼續成功的贏家。本篇針對銀行的競爭能力，採用CAMEL架構，從五大構面衡量銀行在不同層面的競爭能力，以2007-2013年為研究期間，並使用來自Bankscope資料庫中的比率，以LCGA將銀行的表現進行分群，從而看出不同的分群在競爭能力上的動態軌跡。 研究結果顯示，LCGA所繪製的競爭力軌跡，除了一般可觀察到的因素之外，更包含了更為深層的、無法直接觀察到的動態能力，此方法可以描述成員的連續性和改變。傳統在使用財務指標時，雖然我們也會取產業平均進行比較，然而我們能得到的是優勢的次數，但如果我們採用的是LCGA，則可以更進一步得到該指標各分群的動態軌跡變化，是具備時間趨勢的順序（sequence），從中我們可以知道各分群的競爭力究竟是如何消長的。排除掉累積優勢的影響後，優勢分群的表現通常和時間無關，而優勢分群和弱勢分群的績效表現在逐漸接近當中，反映了美國銀行業是高度競爭的產業，任何銀行在某方面的優勢容易被快速模仿，因此不容易長期保有競爭優勢。

Bank industry is the main platform for corporate financing and personal financing. It plays an important role as a financial intermediate. Therefore, we will especially emphasize on their going concern. Previous studies focus on finding banks which may fail in the future. However, few studies have investigated the banks with sustained competitive advantage that may still have superior performance in the future. In this study, we focus on the bank’s competitive ability, adopt CAMEL infrastructure and measure different competitive abilities from five dimension. We apply LCGA to US companies during 2007-2013, using financial ratios from Bankscope, and distinguished performance-difference groups. Then identify different groups’ trajectories among competitive abilities. The empirical results find that the latent trajectories identified by the model are not only reflect observable factors but also deeper and unobservable dynamic abilities. It can be used to identify growth patterns that describe continuity and change among members of different subpopulation. In the past when we use financial indicators, although we compared it with industry average, we can only get times of superior performance. However, when applying LCGA, we can further identify each groups’ dynamic trajectories under financial indicators. It provides the sequence that how competitive trajectories goes up and down with more clearly time trend. After partial out the effects of cumulative advantage, most of the superior groups have a pattern independent from time. While the performance of superior and inferior groups are getting closer. This reflect the US bank industry are highly competitive that any advantage in certain area will be quickly imitate by rivals. Therefore, it can not sustain competitive advantage in a long run.