從科技觀點探討我國國防政策發展

Abstract

任何一個國家國防政策制定的過程均十分複雜，包含本國的軍事科技能力、敵國(Adversary)與盟國(Ally)的關係等因素。軍事科技能力屬於第一層(First-tier)國家一般皆具有全系列(full spectrum) 的軍事科技能力，因此其國防政策的發展具有較充份的自主性；第二層(Second-tier)國家雖具全系列軍事科技能力，但因政經因素，部份科技仍需靠第一層國家協助。然第三層(Third- tier)國家軍事科技能力的建立及武器的獲得必需依賴第一層及第二層國家輸出，故國防政策的發展易受第一層及第二層國家的影響而較難自主。我國在軍事科技能力上屬第三層國家，國防政策發展主要受外部威脅敵國-“中國”及盟國-“美國”的影響。而按軍事科技能力分類，中國屬第二層國家，美國屬第一層國家，故面對中國的軍事威脅，我國軍事科技時時需依賴美國，國防政策發展因而受其限制與影響。本研究從科技觀點出發，借用Ian Anthony軍事科技能力分層(Tier)概念，並結合Churchman系統方法、Ackoff 擴展論及Mintzberg角色分析，提出一個包括聯盟國, 敵國及國家互動的三角色概念模式(three-role model)，並藉由此模式深入分析第三層國家的國防政策如何深受第一層及第二層國家互動及角色變化的影響，並以台灣為個案研究對象說明我國及潛在敵國-中國、盟國-美國三者間的動態關係，經深入分析我國、美國及中國三者間在各階段角色的演進及互動關係的改變，研究結果顯示美國及中國透過不同的角色扮演來影響我國的國防政策發展。最後, 本模式可運用到其它第三層國家國防政策發展。

The process of formulating a national defense policy is very complicated, involving factors such as domestic military technology and the particular country’s relationship with potential adversary and allied nations. First-tier countries usually possess the full range of arms production capabilities, which results in greater independence in formulating a defense policy. Second-tier countries are able to produce equipment across the full spectrum of military technology, but choose not to do so for either economic or political reasons. Third tier countries (TTCs), however, lack this extensive ownership of military technological capability, and must therefore depend on first or second tier countries’ (FSTCs) exports, making it difficult to formulate a defense policy without interference from FSTCs. Taiwan is a third-tier country and the development of Taiwan’s defense policy is influenced by the United State which is a first-tier country, and China which is a second-tier country. This study uses technology perspective, Churchman’s system approach, Ackoff’s systems view of expansionism and Mintzberg’s role analysis to propose a three-role model for the interaction between the ally, the potential adversary and the country. The vast influence of the interaction and changing roles of FSTCs on the defense policy of TTCs are analyzed based on this model. Taiwan is used here as a case study to explore the dynamic relationship between Taiwan, its potential adversary (China) and its ally (the US). After in-depth research of the evolving roles and interactions between the three countries over time, results show that the United States and China have greatly influenced the formulation of Taiwan’s defense policy by playing different roles. Finally, the implications of the model are also discussed.