燃料電池公車成本結構與市場潛力分析之研究

Abstract

目前人類面臨化石能源耗竭與環境污染兩大問題，有鑑於此，發展高效率的環保性運具來取代傳統燃油運具已勢在必行。燃料電池運具之駕駛操作性能已發展至與現有燃油運具性能接近，且其零污染排放之特性最為各界所關注，唯獨其成本結構仍居高不下。由於公車之體積與污染排放量均較一般自小客車來得高，故燃料電池公車應是目前現階段最環保同時亦最具發展潛力之大眾運輸工具。 本研究在供需互動架構下，以解析性方法構建公車業者採用燃料電池公車之相關供給成本模式與需求模式，成本模式分兩大部份，包括燃料電池車輛成本與氫能供應站成本，燃料電池車輛成本方面，主要考量車輛折舊成本、車輛維修成本與氫能成本，氫能供應站成本則有平均設置成本、平均營運成本與設備維護成本；而需求模式之主要影響變數則有車輛購置成本、單位里程燃料成本、車輛最高速度與單位里程之污染量。此外，本研究利用灰色理論預測未來燃油價格與氫能價格之趨勢走向，藉以分析燃料價格之變化對公車業者營運成本之影響。本研究進一歩考量政府部門之補貼預算限制，並在最小化社會總成本之目標下，構建補貼數學規劃模式，以決定業者均衡使用量與最適資本補貼與績效補貼額度。 研究結果顯示，透過政府之補貼可提高公車業者使用燃料電池公車之意願，至2021年左右，燃料電池公車相對於燃油公車已具有相當程度之競爭力；此外，公車業者未來使用量愈多，空氣污染之減量成效愈彰，能源節約效益亦隨之愈大；在多次績效補貼方面，補貼額逐年減少，且越晚採用補貼次數越少，至2021年左右，因燃料電池公車系統之總成本低於燃油公車系統總成本，故自該年起可停止實施績效補貼；在外部成本改善之效益方面，改善空氣污染之績效補貼初期較不具效益，但透過政府部門相關之補貼機制，其成本效益將逐漸彰顯。研究結果可供政府部門於未來推動燃料電池公車相關規劃之參考依據。

At present, human face two crucial problems of fossil fuel energy depletion and environmental pollution. Thus, developing high-efficiency environment-friendly vehicles to replace traditional oil-fueled vehicles has become an important issue. The driving performances of fuel cell vehicles have been developed to approach oil-fueled vehicles. Those vehicles have the characteristics of zero pollution emission, yet their costs still remain relatively high. The size and pollution emission of buses are larger than other vehicles, so the fuel cell bus should be the more environment-friendly and potential-developed vehicle. This study explores the interaction between supply and demand of fuel-cell buses, and formulates supply cost functions and demand model using analytical approach. The cost function is divided into two parts, including fuel cell bus costs and hydrogen refueling station cost. Fuel cell bus cost includes depreciation cost, maintenance cost and hydrogen cost; while hydrogen refueling station cost includes average establishment cost, average operation cost and equipment repair cost. Variables affecting fuel cell bus demand function are bus purchase cost, fuel cost per unit mileage, the maximum speed and pollution emission per unit mileage. In addition, this study applies gray theory to predict the trend of oil price and hydrogen price, and analyzes the influence due to the change in fuel-price differences on bus operators’ cost. Moreover, a mathematical programming model is formulated to determine the equilibrium demand volumes and the optimal capital subsidy and air-pollution performance subsidy by minimizing the total social cost subject to government subsidy budget. The results of the case study show that the government subsidy can increase the fuel-cell bus usage of bus operators, and at year 2021, fuel cell buses will have the competitive advantage over oil-fueled vehicles. In addition, the more fuel-cell buses bus operators adopt, the more air pollution will be decreased, and the more energy will be saved. Regarding performance subsidy, the amount and frequency of subsidy is decreasing year by year, thereby performance subsidy policy can be discontinued at year 2021, at which the total costs of fuel cell buses are less than the total costs of oil-fueled ones. Finally, through implementing the government’s subsidy policy, the benefits of pollution and energy saving are shown to be manifested with the increased years.