偏遠地區服務補貼路線乘客對引進副大眾運輸選擇行為之研究

Abstract

偏遠地區屬低度開發地區且人口密度低，大眾運輸的旅次需求少，難以維持一般公車服務，而有營運虧損的問題，我國政府亦對偏遠地區服務路線投入資金進行補貼以維持運輸服務，但補貼成效並不顯著。為規劃適當大眾運輸供應方式，了解乘客旅運行為係一應進行之先期工作，故本研究著重於探討偏遠地區乘客社經與旅次特性及對副大眾運輸之選擇偏好。

礙於資源的限制，本研究以大台北地區為研究區域，選取五條大台北地區之服務補貼的路線進行研究，並採用個體選擇模式與敘述性偏好為研究方法，透過實地問卷調查蒐集偏遠地區服務補貼路線乘客資料，設計敘述性偏好問卷以探討乘客對副大眾運輸的選擇偏好情形。

從所蒐集的資料、交叉分析及選擇模式校估，本研究將大台北偏遠地區服務補貼路線整理分為兩種：一為土地使用發展強度低且人口密度低之補貼路段，旅次發生較為分散，而另一種為土地使用發展強度高且人口密度高之補貼路段，其旅次發生較為集中。

本研究模式校估結果發現，動物園－金龍寺線顯著之影響變數有車內旅行時間、旅行金錢成本、年齡、是否有私人運具；瑞芳－六堵線顯著之影響變數有車內旅行時間、每月個人可使用金額；淡水－中泰線顯著之影響變數有車外旅行時間、年齡、每月個人可使用金額、是否有私人運具、旅次目的；瑞芳－鼻頭角線顯著之影響變數有旅行金錢成本、性別、每月個人可使用金額。

Rural area is an area of low population density and low travel demand. It is hard to maintain a conventional bus service in rural area. Much fund was put to subsidy the bus services for rural area in our country, but the effects were not recognized. This study is aimed at exploring the socio-economic and travel characteristics of bus passengers in rural area and their choice preference for paratransit services.

Owing to the limited resources, only 5 subsidized bus routes around Taipei metropolitan area were selected as studying targets, representing 5 corridors of different land use. This research conducts the survey of the questionnaire about passengers' preference choice behavior of taking bus in Rural Subsidy Bus Route, and establishes the stated preference model, via discrete choice model to analyze the passengers' choice behavior.

The result , cross analysis, and choice model estimation, this research classifies the Taipei metropolitan rural subsidy bus route into two broad categories ：One is low land use, low population density and trip generation scatters; the other is high land use, high population density and trip generation centralizes.

The estimation results of the multinomial logit model indicate that in-vehicle travel time, travel cost, age, and ownership of private vehicles are significant factors to influence the passenger choice in the Taipei Zoo - Jinlong temple bus route；in-vehicle travel time and disposable income per month are significant factors to influence the passenger choice in the Rueifang - Lioudu bus route ；out-of-vehicle travel time, age, disposable income per month, ownership of private vehicles, and trip purpose are significant factors to influence the passenger choice in the Danshuei - Jhongtai bus route ；travel cost, sex, and disposable income per month are significant factors to influence the passenger choice in the Rueifang - Bitou Cape bus route.