軍隊編裝策略之整合模式研究

Abstract

本研究係綜合應用專家評估、層級分析、蒙地卡羅與多屬性決策等方法，提出一種支援戰略規劃的決策模式（本研究稱為「整合評估模式」），以整合專家意見並評估多樣不同的擬案，達到輔助高階決策之目的。 美軍是目前世界上戰力最強的部隊，亦為其他國家所追隨與師法的標的。本研究依美國陸軍現況與公開資料，以基本戰略單位（旅）為核心，探討地面部隊編裝擬案之評選，以避免洩漏國軍編裝細節違害安全；此雖與國軍地面部隊編裝發展略有差異，但在方法與精神上應是一致的；而其它層級的部隊編裝擬案評選，亦可以本研究為基礎予以適當延伸推論。 本研究將藉由實際分析各型地面作戰任務的部隊編裝擬案（裝甲型、重裝型、輕裝型、空騎型與特戰型），以驗證整合評估模式。本研究整合評估模式的獨特貢獻在於綜合各種分析工具的效能，特別是在「探究少數意見的意涵」的能力。期能對高階國防事務決策及相關軍事學術研究者，在制定與執行政策分析與戰略規劃時有所助益。

This dissertation attempts to formulate a new approach to support high-level strategic planning decisions by integrating the Expert-evaluation, AHP, Monte Carlo and Multiple Attribute Decision Making. This new methodology, as introduced and demonstrated in this dissertation, is called Integrated Strategy Modeling (ISM). It integrates experts' opinion to evaluate diverse options, with the intent of generating useful insights to support the decision-making process. The U.S. Armed Forces are the most well-trained and powerful troops in the world, and is the idol for other countries to tread behind as well. This research focuses on the basic strategic unit, brigade, and based on the public information and publications of the U.S. Army to elaborate the military organization options of the ground forces. This dissertation attempts to apply serial examples to investigate the organization options. The specific option considered, which includes armored, heavy mechanism, light infantry, air-cavalry and special operations forces, is evaluated and compared across a wide spectrum of ground-oriented missions. The essential contribution of this research is the ISM process, and the mixture of capabilities brought together, especially the ability of exploring implications of divergent minority opinions.