以實質選擇權評價高科技公司決策管理彈性化之價值

Abstract

傳統上，定價行為分析之基本架構為現金流量折現法(DCF)，其至目前為止亦廣為應用。其中，以淨現值法(NPV)作為專案價值之評估最為常用，也是一般現金流量之預測所慣用的方式。因此，在投資計算的過程中，便常會忽略價值本身尚存在的其他影響或隱含因素，因而使得透過淨現值法所計算出之價值容易受到現值(PV)影響而與實際價值產生極大差異。因此，本文擬將管理化彈性所產生的因素在價值的考量上所產生的效果納入考慮。 在考量管理化彈性對公司或專案的重要性之過程中，本文以六家中小規模之科技公司為對象進行訪談，並透過引導情境分類的方式，找出管理彈性在增加公司或專案價值的潛在機會，並發現其中包含諸多選擇權之概念，故採用此研究方式進行後續研究。在對各種可能的不確定性因素帶來的價值選擇情境進行詳細分類後，發現其中包含在生產、採購、研發、智財管理、資源配置、銷售（售後）、財務、策略規劃、市場以及科技基礎上均隱含有不確定因素存在，因此，需使用一個方法徹底顯示出上述所呈獻之不確定性因素對公司或專案價值所帶來的隱含效果。 過去的文獻與經驗顯示，管理彈性在投資決策過程中所造成的影響多半受到忽視。因此本研究改良實質選擇權模式，使其能適切地計算出隱含在管理彈性化下因素所產生的真正價值與收益，同時實質選擇權也能夠適切地傳遞策略上的應用價值，故本文提出一個具有優勢計算的方式，將NPV視為選擇權之一環，並以實質選擇權的理論來演繹其變化，考量交互策略、研發、創投者的角度，並以實際案例來驗證本論文所提出之論點。

Abstract In traditional financial theory, the discounted cash flow model operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value (NPV) of a project is the measure of the value that is the present value of expected cash flows added to the initial cost. Thus, investing in a positive (negative) net present value project will increase (decrease) value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options which are the managerial flexibilities, which are the collection of opportunities. Interviews were conducted with the representatives of the six participating firms, who found the concept of real options appealing. Systematically scanning different functional areas for possible sources of uncertainty can help identify viable option scenarios in a firm. The functional areas include operations, procurement, R&D, IP management, distribution, sales, after-sales, finance, strategic planning, marketing, and IT infrastructure. Such a methodology can help to reveal opportunities that may otherwise be overlooked or remain implicit. A real-option model can estimate and solve to yield the value of the project as well as the option value that is associated with managerial flexibilities. Most previous empirical researchers have considered the initial-investment decision (based on NPV model) but have neglected the possibility of flexible operation thereafter. The real options terminology can be used to communicate the firm‘s strategy to the stakeholders. This dissertation can provide firms with a competitive advantage, especially in highly volatile climates. So, we modify the NPV by taking into account real options - theme of this thesis, or strategic interactions. R&D, Equity and Joint Ventures will be viewed as real options in practice of case studies of this dissertation.