以小世界社會網路為基礎的病媒性疾病模型:

Abstract

病媒性傳染疾病的傳播動態牽涉到病媒因素及人群結構的個別因素與其交互影響的結果。此篇論文結合多代理人系統、人際接觸社會網絡、社會分身點概念、倉室模型（compartmental model）等建模方法，發展一套適合用來模擬病媒性傳染疾病的傳播動態與探討相關的公共衛生政策的成效的流行病電腦模擬模型。在模擬模型中，我們以代理人為基礎，利用社會分身點概念，來表現人類個體在現代都會生活中日常定點活動、長距離移動、高群聚度、低分隔度、區域群聚性等重要社會網絡拓樸特質。在病媒層面，我們則以區塊化模型來模擬病媒族群散佈在都會各區域的數量與族群間的數量轉移動態。在建構一個適合用來模擬病媒性傳染疾病的傳播動態的電腦模擬平台之後，此篇論文以登革熱為具體模擬實例，藉由模擬2002年高雄市登革熱的流行過程與結果來驗證本模擬模型。並利用此模擬平台，探討登革熱在大都會區的傳播動態，及各項公共衛生政策對於登革熱的傳播動態的影響。

Vector-borne disease transmissions are influenced by vector population and human population. In order to simulate the transmissions of vector-borne diseases and discuss the related health policies effects on vector-borne diseases, we combine the multi-agent-based system, social network, mirror identity concept, and compartmental model to develop an epidemic simulation model. In the identity level, we use the multi-agent-based system and the mirror identity concept to describe identities with social network features such as daily visits, long-distance movement, high degree of clustering, low degree of separation, and local clustering. In the vector level, we use compartment model concept to describe the vector populations and the transmission between populations. After building a suitable vector-borne epidemic simulation model, we simulate the epidemics of dengue in Kaohsiung in 2002. According the outcome of the simulation, we can prove our model and discuss the transmissions in urban areas and the effects of different health policies on dengue.