國家級技術前瞻共識形成機制之研究

Abstract

本研究以共識形成為主題，針對前瞻進行階段性的分析：本研究先從實際前瞻案例中找出影響前瞻共識形成重要因素；之後從關係者分析角度，分析不同關係者差異對前瞻規劃的啟示；接著提出一個以共識形成為主的巨觀前瞻模型並以一進行二十年之前瞻實例及其網站內容，實證前述分析模型之內容。 本研究以三個實際參與式技術前瞻案例實證分析，採共識形成的三個先決條件，從由上而下觀點得到前瞻規劃在共識形成方面，在前瞻問題定義、前瞻協商結構、及前瞻參與動機三個面向的重要因素。另外，本研究以臺灣材料科技領域進行的前瞻先導計劃為例，進行權益闗係者分析，採由下而上觀點分析五個有助共識形成的前瞻規劃策略。 綜合前述研究及文獻內容，本研究提出共識形成為主的巨觀模型，說明前瞻過程始於議題的產生，接著要有權益闗係者的參與。之後進入前瞻流程，應用不同方法，從專業與分析、創新及創意二個構面切入，關係者以不同方法互動及建立共識，建立對未來的評估及行動方案的共識，及執行共識的人際網路。接下來，不同關係者各自執行前瞻行動方案，直至發現新的議題，啟動新的前瞻。而前瞻建立共識內容則為可能的未來、有利的未來、偏好的未來、現在行動方案、及開展及推廣。 最後，研究以一個美國實際的前瞻網站前瞻學院(www.foresight.org)的網站內容，以前述研究提出模型及規劃要點，驗證提出模型及規劃要點的適用性，發現前述研究所提出陳述，都可在這個已有實行二十年經驗的案例中得到實證。

Foresight is regarded as an emerging tool for technology policy planning in the trend of rapid technology development and globalization. Consensus building, as one of five advantages, 5Cs, of Foresight, enables the society to perceive the characteristic of technology in the emerging phase. This can solve the dilemma of Collingridge for technology future planning. The study, based on view point of consensus building, involves a four-stage investigation. Three national foresight cases are reviewed based on preconditions of consensus building. The study defines key factors for consensus building in respective of problem definigion, negotiation stucuture and participation motivation. Another field study based on material technology field of Taiwan is conducted using stakeholder analysis. Five key strategies are suggested to settle foundation of consensus formation concerning stakerholders’ view. . The model describes foresight as issue-originated event followed by stakeholder’s participation. After the participating, a multi-approach foresight process begin with two or any of “professional and analytical” and “innovation and new idea”dimensions. After interaction and aligment of stakeholders, prospect about future, action items and personal network are ready for implement of foresight resutl. The implement continues till new issue is brung up and another foresight process proceeds. The content of consensus in Foresight process includes: possible future, plausible future, preferred future, implement strategies, and action items. Finally, an American-based foresight program with twenty years of track record-the foresight nanotechnology institute-is invesgitaged using content analysls of its website. The model and statements proposed by previous investigation are verified by the case.