標題: 台灣面版產業併購的價值分析-實質選擇權的運用
Valuation of Taiwan TFT-LCD Industrial M&A-Application of Real Option Method
作者: 俞祥雲
洪志洋
科技管理研究所
關鍵字: 企業併購;實質選擇權評價模式;面版產業;現金流量折現法;Merge and Acquisition;Real Option Method;TFT-LCD Manufacturers
公開日期: 2006
摘要: 本研究的目的在於利用企業評價的方法分析台灣面版產業的併購綜效。面版業為台灣重要的重點產業之一,2005年台灣的面版產值已達新台幣6600億元。在光電產業環境迅速改變、技術快速進步的同時,企業之間發生併購的需要性很大,本研究的主旨為分析整理目前光電產業的現況以及模擬發生併購活動時,價值的產生與移轉。 驅使企業進行併購的動機,除了財務績效的提昇以外,策略面的考量應為更重要的因素。因此目標清晰、規劃良善的併購策略,應能增加計劃的價值。但是,傳統併購評價模式並未考慮策略的價值,也沒有考慮競爭對手互動的情境,因而可能低估整體計劃價值。所以,本研究試圖將實質選擇權理論導入併購評價流程之中,以反映併購策略可能創造的潛在價值,提供國內數家主要的面版製造廠商如友達、奇美、廣輝、華映或群創等全盤的策略思考。 本研究將使用企業評價的方法計算企業併購的合併價值,再利用實質選擇權求算出潛在的成長或彈性價值,將傳統淨值加上選擇權價值即為擴張性綜效價值。個案模擬分析顯示,友達與廣輝的合併確實帶來較高的淨值,但是策略彈性的價值卻不如奇美來的高,此與市場的預期是相符的。在不確定未來之下,決策彈性確實有其重要性,不同的情境有不同的思考。
TFT-LCD manufacturing is one of the focused industries in Taiwan. The output value of this industry has exceeded to be six hundred and sixty billion NT Dollars in 2005. However, the rapid changes of technology in this field and the market environment have exerted increasing pressure on those manufacturing firms in the industry. Merger and acquisition activities among those manufacturing firms have become inevitable. Possible merger activities among three major Taiwanese TFT-LCD manufacturers, namely AUO, CMO, and QDI, are examined in this study. The DCF method of enterprise valuation is used to calculate the synergy in every possible merge case. Values of the potential growth or flexibility options are then inferred from the results. Three types of betas are calculated in this research. Based on the results from the case simulation analysis, the research confirms that the policy-making flexibility will have some contribution when companies are in different scenarios. Besides traditional business values, the option values are meaningful, too. Keyword: Merge and Acquisition, Discounted Cash Flow Method, Real Option Method, TFT-LCD Manufacturers
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009335511
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/79565
Appears in Collections:Thesis


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