以情境分析法探討---銀髮族醫療照護產業之功能與發展

Abstract

二十一世紀的今天，人口老化衍然已成為全球在人口及健康上一個重要的議題，剛邁入開發國家或開發中國家較之歐美先進國家，因老化速度更為迅速，使得人口老化對社會國家伴隨來的影響，尤其明顯。以健康面向而言，在平均壽命延長的情況下，大家無不謀求延緩或避免疾病的發生及惡化，以促成群體上健康及成功的老化，使人口老化的壓力及對健康的負面影響降低。 那老化相關的健康問題到底包括哪些?利用情境分析法推測未來的數位生活場景，到底人類醫學會成功發展出哪些新的醫療照護技術可以改善目前老化所面臨的疾病之苦?例如基因療法的發展，生物晶片的開發，遠距醫療…..等，甚至於目前仍屬於老年常見的不治之症各種腫瘤癌症是否也在不久之將來可以成功研發出有效療法，而得以延長存活率。 除此之外，醫療場所目前除傳統之診所或各型大小醫院外，是否透過科技的發展虛擬醫生可以如影隨形般照顧銀髮族的健康，使罹患身體(關節)退化之苦的銀髮族不必再因上一趟醫院受奔波之苦，這樣的情境也會在本研究中作一逐步的分析探討。 銀髮族的醫療照護產業的現況與未來發展是本研究的另外一項重要課題，未來老年人口比例越來越高，醫療照護產業勢必越來越蓬勃發展，科技先進國家無不竭盡所能發展此一產業，台灣擁有全球超優半導體與資訊電子…等上下游整合能力，是否有機會在未來於此產業中脫穎而出則有賴政府的產業政策的計劃與執行。

The 21st century today, the aging of population spreads out however has become the whole world in the population and the health an important subject, either developed country or in the development country compared with the European and American advanced countries, because the rate of aging population grow up more rapidly, caused the aging of population the influence which impact the society or country, was especially obvious. For health and mean lifetime issue, everyone would like to avoids the disease the occurrence and the worsening, facilitates on the community the health and the success aging, to reduce the health negative influence which cause from the aging of population。 Which does the ageing problem related healthy question include? If time will advance in the future ’s digital life by scenario analysis, which new medical technology will be able to succeed in develop to reduce pains of the disease? For example gene therapy development, biological chip development, Telemedicine service.... and so on, even at present still belonged to the old age common incurable disease of tumor cancer whether also will be allowed to succeed in the future that will develop the effective therapy, which could lengthen the mean lifetime. In addition, the traditional medical platform include clinic or hospital at present, could technology develop hypothesized doctor which will take care the aged people’s health？Such situation also will make a gradually analysis in this paper. Ageing medicine industry current status and the future development is this research other important topic, the ratio of elderly people to total population is getting higher, medical treatment industry will more important for developed country, whether Taiwan will have the opportunity blooming it will depends on the government industrial policy plan and the execution in the future.