標題: | 健保局北區分局財務收支預測模式研究 The research of financial forecast model of Northern Branch, Bureau of National Health Insurance |
作者: | 胡中武 Hu Chung Wu 李素瑛老師 資訊學院資訊學程 |
關鍵字: | 資料採礦;時間數列;離群值;平均預測法;移動平均法;加權移動平均法;迴歸分析法;自我迴歸移動平均整合模式;Data mining;Time series;Out liers;The Averaging Forecasting Method;The moving average Forecasting Method;Weighted moving average Method;Regressive analysis method;Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model |
公開日期: | 2003 |
摘要: | 全民健康醫療保險制度乃是社會保險制度的一環,當初建立的最大宗旨就在透過保險制度的設計,援用大多數人的力量幫助少數、弱勢的族群獲得一定程度以上的醫療照顧;九年來因人口老化、醫療器材日益昂貴、醫療費用增加、健保費率調整不易、地方政府財務吃緊、保費收入減少、人民就醫習慣不良、醫療資源浪費等不利因素相乘下,全民健保財務出現收入與支出不平衡的嚴重危機。本研究應用健保局北區分局實際的保險財務收支資料,試圖在眾多預測理論或工具中找尋一有效又實用的方法,建立保費收入與保險支出兩者的預測分析模式,俾利提供使用者財務收支預測的參考依據。 The National Health Insurance is a kind of social insurance. At first, the major purpose of establishment is via the design of insurance system to use the power of bulk people to help the weak group of people to obtain health care to some certain level. The financial crisis of The National Health Insurance appeared due to the aging of population, and increasingly expensive medical appliances, the increase in the fees of medical treatment. It is difficult to adjust the rating of health insurance. The financial situation and budget is critical in the local government. The income of insurance payment is getting lower and lower. The waste of medical resources makes the situation worse. In this research, we exploit the effective and practical methods in forecasting and prediction theories or tools. We use the actual data of financial revenue and expenditure of Northern Branch, Bureau of National Health Insurance. We try to establish the forecasting model of financial revenue and expenditure of health insurance. It could provide a consultation of financial revenue and expenditure forecasting of Northern Branch, Bureau of National Health Insurance. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT008967562 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/80047 |
顯示於類別: | 畢業論文 |
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