新產品量產決策之研究-以光學鏡頭為例

Abstract

新產品專案在正式進入量產階段前，會面臨「量產或繼續研發」(mass production or keep development)的決策問題，本論文探討如何以決策分析的角度進行有效管理新產品量產，並建立更為客觀的量產評估模式，以協助決策者了解新產品專案在發展階段所面臨的不確定情況，進而做出適當之量產決策。 因此，本研究以光學鏡頭為研究對象，擬針對新產品專案在正式進入量產階段前，對專案之「量產或繼續研發」問題進行架構與分析，並利用多目標決策分析方法，針對專案是否應量產、或重新調整計畫內容繼續研發進行決策模式的建構與討論。透過多目標決策分析程序，藉由問卷方式探討影響新產品量產決策之影響因素為何？找尋各因素(指標)之影響權重關係；並建立與執行新產品量產決策之評估，驗證評估模式之可行性。 本研究依據文獻回顧與問卷回覆資料分析，整理出新產品於量產評估時，供應商準備度、生產線準備度、產品成熟度、客戶需求度、利潤等五項必要準則必須同時達到其門檻值，新產品才得以量產。更進一步透過實例分析說明評估準則執行方式為藉由專案成員針對此五項必要準則討論評估之後，給予程度達成評估，量產決策者則可以依據準則評估之結果，進行新產品專案的量產或繼續研發決策分析，尋求最適量產時機以使組織利潤能達於極大。

When any new product is inches to the stage of mass production, its project manager has to make the critical decision whether he/she shall initiate its mass production or continue the research for the product advancements. In this thesis, I attempt to answer this “mass production/continuation of R&D” dilemma with the assistance of decision analysis. The intension is to build up an object evaluation model which serves as the decision maker’s guideline. The goal is to help the decision maker understand the uncertainty of the developing project and make right decision in the critical moment of mass production. Therefore, this research takes optics lens as the research object to carry out the analysis of “mass production/continuation of R&D” dilemma. Based on the survey and Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method, critical factors and their weights are found. Also, I establish the rules of mass production decision of the new product in optical lens and validate the rules. According to my survey results, five essential criteria are established: 1) the readiness of suppliers; 2) the readiness of assembling line; 3) the maturity of new products; 4) requirements of customers; and 5) profitability. Moreover, the decision rule says that the mass production get initiated when all five criteria pass their corresponding threshold simultaneously. The conclusion of the case study can help the maximize profit of an organization when the decision maker encounters “when mass production/continuation of R&D” dilemma.