影響電信業無線通訊客戶流失因素之探討-以美國杜克大學研究A電信公司客戶為例

Abstract

隨著行動通訊市場日趨飽和，競爭日益激烈，各業者均面臨客戶嚴重流失問題。客戶流失管理是企業擬定策略時的基本考量，而妥善處理客戶流失問題亦關係到企業的成敗及能否維持競爭優勢的關鍵。本研究目的即是定義顧客流失的影響因素，使電信業者能有效的及早預測客戶流失，找出潛在的可能流失客戶群，並且採取行動去保留顧客。 本論文研究是使用二元羅吉斯迴歸（Binary logistic regression），利用Duke University 之資料檔案為基礎，研究對象為美國A電信業者所蒐集之103,179筆客戶的檔案資料。挑選影響用戶流失及顧客忠誠度的影響變數，客戶選擇轉換服務供應商的機率與顧客滿意程度有關，本研究探討與客戶使用行為相關的變數、與背景資料相關變數及與公司互動相關的變數對於顧客忠誠度的影響及使用二元羅吉斯迴歸進行流失預測。研究發現開發一個新客戶的成本比挽留原有客戶的成本還要高的多，公司擁有的客戶數量與客戶穩定度是確保公司長久性成長的重要因素。對許多以會員簽約制的產業如電信公司而言，如何妥善處理客戶流失的因素並挽留住高貢獻度的客戶將是公司能否永續經營的關鍵。 依據模型結果分析，本研究歸納以下結論：1.將有限的資源用來爲最有價值的客戶提供服務，能得到好的顧客滿意度以增加經營利潤。2.擬訂客制化的方案，搭配加值服務，以有效挽留客戶。3.利用完善的客訴系統來解決顧客抱怨。4. 搭配具有競爭力手機促銷方案，以提高客戶的轉換成本及同業競爭的門檻。 關鍵字：顧客流失預測、顧客流失管理、二元羅吉斯迴歸

Churn management is a fundamental concern for business, companies’ strategies to handle churn issue have been directed to survive or maintain an advantage in such a competitive marketplace. By using a binary logistic regression base on a survey of 103,179 mobile users from a customer database of an anonymous U.S. wireless telecommunications company from Duke University, the determinants of subscriber churn and customer loyalty are identified. The main purpose of this research is to find out the variables for better churn prediction prior to initiate strategies for customer retention. The probability that a subscriber will switch carrier is dependent on the level of satisfaction with alternative specific service attributes including behavior predictors, company interaction predictors, customer demographics affect customer loyalty.

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In this thesis, we focused on developing and applying binomial logit model technique to support the churn prediction. The cost of acquiring a new customer is much higher than current customer retention, retention and acquisition of new clients are matters of great concern for businesses. Companies strive towards keeping exist or loyal customers, these customers are more likely to be more profitable over the long haul. These findings provide implications in preventing customers churn: 1. Customer focuses with limited resource to increase customers’ satisfaction and company’s profitability. 2. Initiate customized package for effective customer retention. 3. Provide good customer service to reduce complaints. 4. To propose combined subscription with competitive cellular phone package to build up entry barrier. Keywords: Churn Prediction, Churn Management, Binary logistic regression