低成本航空公司於區域內航空市場範圍之研究

Abstract

低成本航空公司之低廉票價、低營運成本和高航機利用率等均較完整服務航空公司具有優勢，其興起亦已改變航空市場結構。低成本航空公司之票價、航線頻次與機場選擇等決策密切地影響航空公司成本和服務水準，低成本航空公司在進行營運規劃時，有必要考慮旅客需求特性對市場之影響藉以分析總體市場範圍，並以供需互動角度探討低成本航空公司之票價、航線頻次對航空公司成本與需求量的影響。

本研究應用個體選擇模式、解析性方法與數學規劃模式，深入考慮需求面特性、低成本航空公司營運特性和機場間的連動關係以及供需互動關係，進行低成本航空公司市場範圍總計和票價、航線頻次和機場選擇之策略規劃。本研究首先於需求面，考量票價、機場可及時間、旅行時間、航線頻次、個體時間價值等因素，透過解析性方法，構建旅客最適航空公司選擇模式；進一步，針對區域內人口集結密度、所得分佈等社經特性和旅次目的與長度特性，透過時間價值的分佈差異，將個體分析加總至總體，估計低成本航空公司之市場範圍和總體需求量。於供給面，分析影響低成本航空公司營運成本重要因素，以解析性方法，構建能反映航線頻次、機場選擇、機隊規劃與航程距離之營運成本函數。繼而，本研究構建以利潤最大化為目標，並能反映供需互動之數學規劃模式，求解區域內航空市場中各家航空公司的最適頻次、最適機型及最適營運機場下的市場範圍分佈。

最後，本研究針對台灣地區與東南亞地區之間不同市場背景的低成本航空公司營運航線進行範例與數值演算分析，驗證本研究模式之可行性。研究結果顯示，低成本航空公司加入範例航空市場營運後，台北-新加坡航線取得14.14%的市場佔有率，台北-馬尼拉航線則為17.32%。供需互動之規劃模式結果亦顯示，由於台北至新加坡低成本航空客運量仍有成長空間，可考慮略增每周班次，且透過本研究之規劃模式可使低成本航空公司總利潤增加。另外亦針對次要機場區位分析其對於航空市場範圍變動之影響，結果指出若次要機場區位條件優良，聯外運輸系統發達，會影響旅客集結效應，則低成本航空公司在該機場的運量會大於區位條件次之的機場。綜上所述，低成本航空公司可衡量主要市場航線與旅客特性，決策航線班次，爭取有利航權，以獲取市場佔有率，並透過供需互動規劃模式，提高業者之利潤。

The advantage of the low-cost carrier over established full-service carriers on the fare, cost savings and high aircraft utilization represents an evolution of the airline industry all over the world. Though passenger intention to travel via low-cost carriers may be increased due to the low fare, the extent depends on socioeconomic characteristics, spatial variations and trip distributions of passenger demand in the regional market, which further influence total demand on low-cost carriers. Moreover, the decisions on fare, flight frequency and airport selection affect the cost and quality of airline services. A profit-maximizing low cost carrier must investigate the impacts of passenger characteristics of regional markets on the demand and trade-off between the cost of providing the service and the revenue generated by the service, when determining the fare, flight frequency and airport. The proposed study attempts to explore above issues by formulating a series of models.

This study attempts to apply disaggregate choice model, analytical approach and mathematical programming model to develop models on analyzing low-cost carriers’ decisions, such as fares, flight frequency and airport selection, in response to demand-supply interaction. First, this study formulates a disaggregate choice model to analyze the impacts of passenger socioeconomic characteristics, origin and destination of the trip as well as supply attributes, such as fare, flight frequency, access time to the airport, travel time and simplified frills on the optimal carrier choice. The total low-cost carrier demand is further estimated by aggregating individual passenger’s choice based on the probability distribution, socioeconomic characteristics and trip distribution in the regional market. Second, this study employs the analytical method to formulate carrier’s operating cost function by considering the impacts of economies of scale, passenger demand and landing fee charged by the airport. This study further formulates a mathematical programming model to determine the fare, flight frequencies and airport selection with demand-supply interactions by maximizing carrier’s total profit.

A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model using data available from low-cost carrier operating routes with different market background in Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The results show that Taipei-Singapore route earns 14.14% market share, Taipei-Manila route earns 17.32% market share. Demand-supply interaction model also shows that it’s considerable to add weekly flight frequencies of low-cost carrier in Taipei-Singapore route, and low-cost carrier’s total profit will increase by using the developed model. Secondary airport location analysis for the aviation market share changes indicated that low-cost carrier in a well condition secondary airport location with developed access transport system has higher volume. Finally, a case study about the selected low-cost carrier will be provided to illustrate the results and the application of the developed models. Consequently, the expected results of the developed models not only provide basis on studies regarding passenger demand analysis, but also carrier’s decision-making on marketing, operation strategy in a competitive environment.