捷運運量路網效應之研究

Abstract

隨著台北捷運系統路網規模逐漸擴大，台北捷運運量逐年增加，但若將其標準化，以單位路網長度之運量來看，就不一定會隨著路網規模擴大而增加，因此本研究探討台北捷運運量路網效應。本研究先收集台北捷運公司民國85年3月至民國95年12月之月運量與民國87年12月至95年12月之各車站起迄旅次分佈資料，利用t檢定分析台北捷運路網擴充不同階段之效應，並建立台北捷運運量路網效應之迴歸關係。 由研究分析結果顯示，隨著淡水、中和線由淡水站通車至中山站、延伸至台北車站、再延伸至南勢角站的過程中，路線本身單位長度運量會隨著路線長度的延長而逐漸增加。與淡水、中和線平行之木柵線單位長度運量亦逐段增加。板南線之龍山寺站至市政府站通車，台北捷運才形成路網之型態，路網形成時與路網形成前相同路線與不同路線，因路網服務範圍增加，旅客可以在捷運路線之間互相轉乘，因此路網形成時路線單位長度運量會比路網形成前路線單位長度運量大。路網形成後，陸續有板南線龍山寺站至新埔站與小南門線西門站至中正紀念堂站、板南線市政府站至昆陽站、小碧潭支線、板南線新埔站至府中站與板南線府中站至永寧站通車，分析結果顯示在捷運路網的外圍延長路網長度，對整體路網單位長度運量並不會造成顯著的影響，亦發現路網長度延伸至74.4公里時單位長度運量有開始下降之趨勢。 最後，本研究利用迴歸分析建立捷運單位長度運量與路網長度之關係，結果顯示三次曲線模式最符合實際捷運單位長度運量之曲線。

With the expansion the Taipei MRT network, the ridership also increases annually. However, after the standardization process, the unit length ridership may not increase with network. Therefore, in order to analyze the effect for MRT network, the this research collected the overall ridership data from 1996.3~2006.12 and OD ridership data of each station from 1998.12~2006.12. T-test was used to analyze the effect between different expansion period, regression models were also built to construct the ridership effect for Taipei MRT network. The results indicate that the unit length ridership of Danshui, Zhonghe Line increase while the expansion period from Danshui station through Zhongshan station, Taipei Station and Nanshijiao station. Furthermore, the unit length ridership of Muzha Line also increase with respect to the expansion process of Danshui, Zhonghe Line. The MRT network had not been formed until the construction of Bannan Line from Longshan Temple Station to Taipei City Hall Station. The connection of two parallel lines allows passenger to transfer between different lines, at the mean time, the unit length ridership increased comparing to the duration before the forming of MRT network. In addition, the analysis showed that the overall unit length ridership did not increase while Longshan Temple Station to Xinpu Station of BanNan Line, Ximen station to C.K.S. Memorial Hall station of Xiaonanmen Line, Taipei City Hall Station to Kunyang station of BanNan Line, Xiaobitan branch Line, Xinpu Station to Fuzhong station of BanNan Line and Fuzhong station to Yongning station of Bannan Line started commercial service. The results indicated that the expansion of network in suburban area did not have significant effect to the whole network. Moreover, this research also shows that unit length ridership tended to decrease after the network expand to 74.4 km. Lastly, this research applied regression analysis to build the relation of MRT annual ridership and unit network length. The result showed that the model of cubic curve best fit to the actual unit network length of MRT.