台北都會區捷運與公車轉乘優惠效益之分析

Abstract

為瞭解台北捷運與公車轉乘優惠政策對台北都會區運輸市場之影響，本研究利用個體運具選擇行為理論，構建台北都會區運具選擇模式，尋求轉乘優惠與運具選擇之變動關係。此外，本研究進行成本效益分析，找尋最適優惠額度與優惠經費分攤比例。 本研究以小汽車、機車、公車、計程車、步行搭乘捷運、公車轉乘捷運與其他運具轉乘捷運作為替選方案集合，構建多項羅吉特模式與巢式羅吉特模式。校估結果以公車、步行搭乘捷運、公車轉乘捷運與其他運具轉乘捷運四方案在同一巢的模式較佳，顯示大眾運具間之相關性較高。於彈性計算中，公車轉乘捷運方案旅行成本之直接彈性與其對其他方案之交叉彈性值均頗小，且同巢之大眾運具方案的交叉彈性大於巢外私有運具方案。其表示藉捷運與公車轉乘優惠來提升轉乘運量之成效有限，且大部分為大眾運具間的移轉，對私有運具使用者吸引力不大。 成本效益分析中，優惠額度1至7元益本比大於1，淨效益為正。最適優惠額度4元下，經費分攤比例為政府61.92%，公車業者21.53%與台北捷運16.55%。若僅考量公車與捷運之財務淨效益，結果顯示優惠額度1至15元之財務淨效益皆為負，隱含轉乘優惠不宜視為業者之行銷策略。

To explore the effects of fare discount for Metro-bus transfer on transportation market in Taipei metropolitan area, this study employs discrete choice models to analyze how passengers respond to price changes. The ratio of financing apportionment and optimal fare discount are obtained from cost-benefit analysis.

Car, motorcycle, bus, taxi, rapid transit-walk access, rapid transit-bus transfer and rapid transit-other modes transfer are our choice sets of alternatives. This study constructs multinomial logit and nested logit models. The calibrated result shows that the nested logit model with bus, rapid transit-walk access, rapid transit-bus transfer and rapid transit-other modes transfer in a nest, is statistically superior to the multinomial logit model. The elasticity estimates demonstrate that both private and public transport users are insensitive to changes in fares of rapid transit-bus transfer. It means that the effects of fare discount for Metro-bus transfer to enhance the rapid transit-bus riders are limited.

The results of cost-benefit analysis show that the fare discount policy gains profit when one-way transfer fare discount is 1-7 NT dollars. Under the optimal fare discount, 4 NT dollars, the ratio of financing apportionment is 61.92% for the government, 21.53% for bus operators and 16.55% for the Metro. If we only consider bus operators and Metro net financial benefits, it is found that the fare discount policy for 1 to 15 NT dollars discount gains negative profit. It implies that the fare discount policy is not appropriate treated as the marketing strategy for bus operators and the Metro.