應用賽局理論探討台灣TFT-LCD面板廠商之生產策略

Abstract

平面顯示器產業可說是台灣國家級的科技政策「兩兆雙星」中的期中一兆，其中TFT-LCD產業更是台灣目前的主力，國內民間企業近年積極投入TFT-LCD的上下游產業，一同建構完整的供應鏈。 然而，TFT-LCD產業長期有著供過於求的問題，導致廠商們的毛利降低，甚至虧損賠售，故2004年友達光電提出減產之議題，希望藉由減產縮短供給與需求之落差，然而此舉對於長期不斷都在擴充產能的TFT-LCD產業產生很多共鳴與爭議。 本研究利用賽局理論，針對此議題探討廠商間對於各自產量的所產生之交互作用；從賽局元素的定義開始，逐步構建本研究之賽局，再根據反向歸納法與子賽局的完美均衡求得本研究賽局之最適產量。 最後，透過TFT-LCD產業史上第一次面板減產之案例，探討廠商間對於彼此產量影響對於利潤以及市佔率之影響。

One of the national-level scientific and technological “Two trillion double stars” is referred to the flat panel display industry. Particularly the TFT-LCD is the current main economy driving force in Taiwan. In recent years, our countries’ enterprises actively input TFT-LCD industry’s up-stream and mid-stream in order to construct a complete industry supply chain. However, there has been a big problem of supply over demand of TFT-LCD industry. That made the gross profit break down. Some manufacturers sell their panels with no profit even worse. Therefore, the CEO of AUO announced that AUO decide to decrease the production of the panels. He hopes that will make the gap of the supply and demand closer. But there were many discussions about the decision of AUO. So this study takes the advantage of game theory, and focus on this issue. According to elements of game theory, we construct the game step by step. Finally, we find the optimal production by using backward induction and subgame perfect equilibrium.