新造船舶數量之影響因素分析與預測

Abstract

本研究主要在探討海運市場中影響新建造船舶數量的因素，根據船舶噸位供給與海運市場需求之供需理論，尋找並歸納可能影響新造船舶數量之因素。研究方法利用相關分析與迴歸分析分別建立散裝船、貨櫃船與油輪之迴歸模式，據以探討影響上述三類新造船舶數量的因素及其影響關係；並使用時間數列之 ARIMA 模式，進行 2007 年至 2010 年各類新造船舶數量之預測。 研究結果顯示，散裝船、貨櫃船與油輪之新造船舶數量短期與新造船價、二手船價、可用船噸、運價、原物料價格與燃油成本有相關；長期則受到全球貿易量與全球經濟成長率之經濟層面因素所影響。根據 ARIMA 模式的預測結果，2007 年至 2010 年新造散裝船數量呈現持續減少，但有減緩與回穩的跡象；新造貨櫃船數量逐年增加，並且呈現穩定成長；新造油輪數量增減互見，整體看來仍呈現正成長。

The purpose of this study is to find out major factors that influence the delivered numbers of new-built ship in marine market. Correlation analysis and regression analysis methods are used to develop the causal relation type of models for bulkcarrier, container and tanker respectively, from which influential factors and their effects on new-built ships can be explored. ARIMA of Time series analysis are then used to forecast each type of the new-built ship from 2007 to 2010. The results of this study indicate that short term influential factors of bulkcarrier, container and tanker are new-built price, secondhand price, total fleets, freight, materiel price and bunker price.As far as long term effect is concerned, the influential factors are global trade and world GDP. According to forecasting results of the ARIMA model, from 2007 to 2010, new-built bulkcarriers tends to decrease but ease off, new-built containers tends to stably increase, new-built tankers tends to increase in general, but with fairly high degree of variations.