標題: Evaluation of small-and medium-sized display market forecasts
作者: Huang, Jen-Hung
Huang, Hyley
Lee, Cheng-Few
管理科學系
Department of Management Science
關鍵字: forecasting;small and medium display;LCD;Theil's U;nonparametric methods
公開日期: 1-Sep-2008
摘要: The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate small- and medium-sized display market forecasts made by a market research firm. Hypotheses concerning the relationship between stages of technology development and the accuracy of market forecasts are first developed. The hypotheses are then tested and evaluated using the data issued by one market research company, Techno Systems Research (TSR). Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test and nonparametric simple regression are the statistical methods used. The results of the data analysis showed that the forecasts made by the market research company are dependable for mature technology in mature markets, whereas for a new technology their forecasts are inaccurate. Furthermore, the accuracy of forecasts quite often does not improve over time. To our knowledge, no prior published works examine the accuracy of the forecasts made by market research firms. This research shows that small- and medium-sized display manufacturers have to be cautious when using forecast data from market research firms.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0219622008003009
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/8427
ISSN: 0219-6220
DOI: 10.1142/S0219622008003009
期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING
Volume: 7
Issue: 3
起始頁: 517
結束頁: 528
Appears in Collections:Articles