氣候變遷下考量農業用水調配之乾旱供水風險分析

Abstract

近年來區域水文時空變化之不確定性，造成水資源供應已有無可避免的風險。再加上全球氣候變遷對於未來降雨時空分布的影響，區域性公共用水與農業用水的缺水風險將進一步升高，故本研究進行區域水資源供應風險規畫評估，並提出適當的公共用水與農業用缺水風險的回應計畫。 本計畫針對石門地區的水資源供應系統與分區配水單元，建置其水資源供應配水模型，在同時考量長期操作及乾旱時期操作之條件下，配合區域水文及氣候變遷之影響分析，進行不同天然流量變化下的石門地區水資源供應模擬，模擬結果以超越機率分布的形式呈現，將有助於了解不同天然流量變化下之系統缺水風險。

The current water supply system under the temporal and spatial changing of the regional hydrologic uncertainty has faced high shortage risk recently. Furthermore, the future global climate change will makes the shortage risk worse for public and agricultural water demands. Therefore, the risk analysis of regional water resource management is evaluated in this project and the response plans for the possible shortage of the public and agricultural water demands are also provided. In this project, the current water supply systems of Shihmen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan are modeled for the shortage risk analysis. The regional hydrology characteristic analysis and climate change analysis for study area are made to synthesize a great number of patterns of the future rainfall quantities and river flow quantities. Considering the long-term operation and draught period operation simultaneously, the supply shortages of the Shihmen Reservoir under different patterns of river flow quantities are simulated and the exceedance probability, supply shortage risk, is calculated based on the shortage simulation results. Due to the uncertainty of the temporal-and spatial change in regional hydrologic characteristics,the supply of water resources faces some unavoidable risks,while the future global climate change affects the