決策球模式與其應用

Abstract

「不瞭解決策內容」與「未檢視決策偏好」是造成決策失誤的主因。本研究提出─ 決策球模式(Decision Ball Model)以輔助決策者運用電腦展示的球體訊息瞭解決策內 容，並表達與調整決策偏好。以決策球輔助決策的程序分為以下過濾、排序、選擇三階 段： 1. 輔助決策者檢視球面上顯示的替選案分佈圖，以過濾不合宜的替選案。 2. 輔助決策者比較球面上所餘替選案後，初步排序替選案順位。 3. 系統將結果展現在球面後，輔助決策者調整先前的選擇，直至滿意為止。 本研究並擬將此決策球模式推展到以下應用：

“Not understanding the decision context” and “failure to use consistency check on preferences” are two critical mistakes in making decision. This study proposes a Decision Ball model to help a decision maker to “understand” the decision context by observing visualized alternatives on spheres, and to “check and adjust” the related preferences via visualized aids. The Decision Ball model is composed of three phases: screen, order, and choice. The screening phase screens out clearly unwanted alternatives; the ordering phase specifies partial order of alternatives then displays the choices on a Decision Ball; the choosing phase specifies the preferences in pairwise comparison fashion with value trade-offs, and examines the choices then detects and adjusts iteratively the inconsistent preferences via the Decision Ball. Following are three applications of utilizing the Decision Ball model in decision making: