從中長程發展願景探討我國區域新興重點產業發展模式

Abstract

以未來願景導引國家資源投入新興重點產業的發展儼然成為21世紀全球主流的政策趨勢。美國早自40年代開始以國防與科學為導向展開技術預測與前瞻活動，日本則自70年代隨著投入，發展至80、90年代陸續有歐洲及亞洲國家加入，技術性的前瞻規劃於此達到鼎盛。我國過去雖然有研究機構或大學進行零星的預測活動，然而僅限於學術研究性的成果；2006年可視為我國政府真正投入中長程願景規劃與前瞻預測的起始，但是除了將成果落實於新興重點產業發展的經驗相當缺乏之外，在前瞻成果與產業發展策略銜接上相關的方法論更為不足。 本計畫以知識經濟所衍生的各種正向與負向效應為預設環境，以現有我國2015年的產業技術發展願景為基礎，探討如何連結國家創新系統且運用「創新資源網絡」來發展不同類型的新興重點產業，標竿國際值得借鏡的成功經驗，藉由個案研究的比較分析，提出我國獨有的發展模式與競爭策略。

The future vision orient a country invests resource on new and emerging industry will be the main trend in the world in 21st century. The U.S. started to use national defence and science-oriented as method to do technology foresight since 1940s. Japan did the same thing since 1970s, while other European and Asian countries in 1980s-1990s. Technology foresight has been the main trend after that. There were some institutions and universities did technology foresight in Taiwan before. However, it was limited in academic research. Our government started to invest in technology foresight in 2006. Nevertheless, this plan not only lacks of experience, but also lacks of research method, which relates to foresight result and industry development strategy. This plan bases on the positive and negative effect, which derives from knowledge economy, as an assumed environment. It also bases on the industry technology development vision in Taiwan in 2015, discussing the way that link country innovation system and use “Innovation Resource Networking” to develop different style new and emerging industry. The plan will regard successful international experience as a benchmark and use case study to conclude our particular develop model and compete strategy in Taiwan.