考量農業用水之水資源經理方案決策分析
Abstract
本計畫以石門水庫供水區域為研究區域，目前既有之北區水資源經理方案多在解決長期供水問題，然在全球氣候變遷影響下，短期極端缺水事件發生越來越頻繁，且隨著生活品質的提升及高科技產業的發展，對於用水的要求越來越嚴峻，短期缺水可能引發民怨或造成的經濟損失已不可忽視，因此有必要研擬短期應變方案以降低衝擊，故本計畫期能建立一可考量長期、短期及農業調度策略之整合性水資源經理決策模式，並建議可因應未來供水風險管理之最佳投資組合方案，以供決策之參考。將完成： 一、水資源調配模式(GWSM)建立。 二、石門供水區水源調配分析。 三、求償性序率規劃決策模式(SPRDM)建立。 四、最佳組合方案建議。
Shimen Reservoir is our study area. The current master plans for Northern Taiwan always focus on long-term strategies. Due to industry development, living quality enhancement and global climate change, the water requirement is more severe. The financial loss and popular grumble caused by short-term shortage can’t be ignored. The short-term strategies must be considered. However, long-term and short-term combination makes the analysis more complex and difficult. The study proposes a decision model based on stochastic programming with recourse (SPRDM) to solving this puzzle. The suggestion combination can be the reference for decision making. We will finish as follow: 1.Establish GWSM. 2.Analyze Shimen water supply area’s water source. 3.Establish SPRDM. 4.Optimal combination plan’s recommendation.
Shimen Reservoir is our study area. The current master plans for Northern Taiwan always focus on long-term strategies. Due to industry development, living quality enhancement and global climate change, the water requirement is more severe. The financial loss and popular grumble caused by short-term shortage can’t be ignored. The short-term strategies must be considered. However, long-term and short-term combination makes the analysis more complex and difficult. The study proposes a decision model based on stochastic programming with recourse (SPRDM) to solving this puzzle. The suggestion combination can be the reference for decision making. We will finish as follow: 1.Establish GWSM. 2.Analyze Shimen water supply area’s water source. 3.Establish SPRDM. 4.Optimal combination plan’s recommendation.